NBA 2025-2026: Chicago Bulls vs Toronto Raptors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Chicago Bulls
Home Team
35.0%
VS
Toronto Raptors
Away Team
65.0%
Key Prediction Insights
Toronto Raptors are predicted to win (65.0% probability). Expected starting fives: Chicago — Josh Giddey, Anfernee Simons, Isaac Okoro, Matas Buzelis, Jalen Smith. Toronto — Immanuel Quickley, Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects 232.96 combined points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring game with pace and offense likely dictating the flow. The expected spread is Home -6.83, meaning the home team (Toronto) is favored by about 6.8 points and is expected to hold a clear edge.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
233.0
Most likely outcome: 233 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Chicago Bulls - Toronto Raptors)
-6.8
Most likely outcome: -7 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Chicago enters this matchup on a three-game losing streak, dropping decisions to Boston (105-124), Brooklyn (115-123) and Denver (120-136). Those results highlight defensive problems — they’ve been conceding well over 120 points in recent losses. Toronto is 2-1 over the last three, beating Chicago 123-107 on 2026-02-05 and Indiana 122-104, with a loss to Detroit 95-113; they’ve shown they can both score in bunches and close games when rotations click.
Looking at the projected starters, Chicago’s five average an offensive rating of 113.8, defensive rating of 120.9 and an average of 13.90 points made per starter. Toronto’s projected five average an offensive rating of 116.7, defensive rating of 112.7 and 17.28 points made per starter. Those numbers point to Toronto having a modest offensive edge and a more reliable defense from the starters, which lines up with the spread and recent results.
Final Prediction
Toronto’s combination of better recent form against this opponent, higher per-starter scoring (17.28 vs 13.90) and a sizable defensive edge gives them the predicted advantage. Key factor to watch: whether Chicago can stop the run of easy looks that led to 124, 123 and 136 points allowed in their last three games.
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