NBA 2025-2026: Washington Wizards vs Golden State Warriors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Washington Wizards
Home Team
40.0%
VS
Golden State Warriors
Away Team
60.0%
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Trae Young
OR
116.5
DR
127.8
PTS
13.8
VS
De'Anthony Melton
OR
99.7
DR
112.8
PTS
13.0
SG
Tre Johnson
OR
105.2
DR
123.5
PTS
12.4
VS
Brandin Podziemski
OR
114.6
DR
114.8
PTS
13.0
SF
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
107.6
DR
119.5
PTS
10.8
VS
Draymond Green
OR
103.1
DR
114.0
PTS
8.6
PF
Will Riley
OR
105.3
DR
124.1
PTS
8.4
VS
Gui Santos
OR
116.0
DR
113.6
PTS
7.9
C
Tristan Vukcevic
OR
92.3
DR
121.7
PTS
8.3
VS
Quinten Post
OR
105.2
DR
114.4
PTS
7.8
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Golden State Warriors are the pick to win (60.0% probability).
Expected starting fives — Washington Wizards: Trae Young, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Tristan Vukcevic. Golden State Warriors: De'Anthony Melton, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gui Santos, Quinten Post.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a relatively high-scoring game with a combined total of 240.75 points, suggesting an up-tempo tilt and plenty of offense. The expected spread (Home - Away = -3.43) indicates Golden State (away) holds about a 3.4-point edge over Washington.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
240.8
Most likely outcome: 241 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Washington Wizards - Golden State Warriors)
-3.4
Most likely outcome: -4 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Both teams are sliding: Washington’s rating has fallen (−19.0 over five games) and Golden State’s has slipped more sharply (−40.2 over five games).
Washington Wizards
1316.6
-19.0 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Boston Celtics | 1316.6 | -2.7 |
| 2026-03-12 | Orlando Magic | 1319.3 | -3.5 |
| 2026-03-10 | Miami Heat | 1322.8 | -4.2 |
| 2026-03-08 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1327.0 | -8.6 |
| 2026-03-05 | Utah Jazz | 1335.6 | — |
Golden State Warriors
1458.2
-40.2 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | New York Knicks | 1458.2 | -5.5 |
| 2026-03-13 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1463.7 | -8.7 |
| 2026-03-10 | Chicago Bulls | 1472.4 | -12.9 |
| 2026-03-09 | Utah Jazz | 1485.3 | -13.1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1498.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Washington Wizards
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 100 | 111 | -11 | |
| Orlando Magic | 131 | 136 | -5 | |
| Miami Heat | 129 | 150 | -21 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 118 | 138 | -20 | |
| Utah Jazz | 112 | 122 | -10 |
Golden State Warriors
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 107 | 110 | -3 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 117 | 127 | -10 | |
| Chicago Bulls | 124 | 130 | -6 | |
| Utah Jazz | 116 | 119 | -3 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 97 | 104 | -7 |
Game Analysis
Both clubs enter on three-game losing streaks. Washington dropped to Boston (100-111), Orlando (131-136) and Miami (129-150), showing defensive breakdowns and larger losing margins overall. Golden State’s recent losses to New York (107-110), Minnesota (117-127) and Chicago (124-130) have been closer on average, with the Warriors still scoring but allowing enough to lose tight games.
Looking at the expected starters, Washington’s five average an offensive rating of 105.4 and a defensive rating of 123.3, with a combined 53.7 points made (10.7 per player). Golden State’s starters average a 107.7 offensive rating and a 113.9 defensive rating, with a combined 50.3 points made (10.1 per player). That defensive gap (113.9 vs 123.3) favors Golden State and helps explain the projected edge.
Final Prediction
Golden State’s advantage comes from a sturdier group defensive profile and slightly higher starter offensive efficiency, which offsets both teams’ recent slippage. Key factor to watch: whether Washington can improve that defensive rating enough to hang with Golden State’s two-way balance.
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