Golden State Warriors
Western Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Golden State Warriors?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 75 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Golden State Warriors were 7.1% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 75 | 58.7% | 67.4% | 79.3% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 87 | 60.9% | 67.3% | 66.7% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Golden State Warriors won 3 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 3 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | #20 | 1511 | 1553 | 1422 |
| 2024-25 | 94 | #10 | 1514 | 1608 | 1570 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | #6 | 1489 | 1590 | 1584 |
| 2022-23 | 95 | #9 | 1510 | 1572 | 1554 |
| 2021-22 | 104 | #1 | 1511 | 1677 | 1677 |
| 2020-21 | 72 | #12 | 1488 | 1547 | 1547 |
| 2019-20 | 65 | #30 | 1488 | 1488 | 1340 |
| 2018-19 | 104 | #2 | 1510 | 1705 | 1681 |
| 2017-18 | 103 | #2 | 1489 | 1708 | 1708 |
| 2016-17 | 99 | #1 | 1487 | 1814 | 1804 |
| 2015-16 | 106 | #1 | 1511 | 1789 | 1744 |
| 2014-15 | 103 | #1 | 1512 | 1781 | 1781 |
| 2013-14 | 89 | #6 | 1513 | 1615 | 1600 |
| 2012-13 | 94 | #9 | 1511 | 1591 | 1573 |
| 2011-12 | 66 | #27 | 1488 | 1509 | 1380 |
| 2010-11 | 82 | #17 | 1509 | 1534 | 1476 |
| 2009-10 | 82 | #22 | 1490 | 1490 | 1414 |
| 2008-09 | 82 | #24 | 1489 | 1493 | 1411 |
| 2007-08 | 82 | #13 | 1487 | 1604 | 1543 |
| 2006-07 | 93 | #9 | 1489 | 1597 | 1567 |
| 2005-06 | 82 | #24 | 1511 | 1551 | 1421 |
| 2004-05 | 82 | #17 | 1489 | 1518 | 1515 |
| 2003-04 | 82 | #15 | 1489 | 1516 | 1499 |
| 2002-03 | 82 | #18 | 1510 | 1539 | 1477 |
| 2001-02 | 82 | #29 | 1490 | 1521 | 1317 |
| 2000-01 | 82 | #29 | 1509 | 1509 | 1251 |
| 1999-00 | 82 | #27 | 1490 | 1490 | 1311 |
| 1998-99 | 50 | #21 | 1489 | 1501 | 1450 |
| 1997-98 | 82 | #25 | 1489 | 1489 | 1322 |
| 1996-97 | 82 | #22 | 1488 | 1499 | 1400 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gui Santos | PF | 30 | 14.5 |
| Will Richard | SG | 21 | 13.5 |
| Stephen Curry | PG | 34 | 8.7 |
| De'Anthony Melton | PG | 24 | 7.0 |
| Moses Moody | SG | 49 | 4.7 |
| Quinten Post | PF | 32 | 3.5 |
| Brandin Podziemski | SG | 39 | 2.4 |
| Draymond Green | PF | 61 | 1.4 |
| Jimmy Butler | SF | 31 | 1.3 |
Every Golden State Warriors player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Los Angeles Clippers | L Golden State Warriors 22.1% | L 110-115 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Sacramento Kings | W Golden State Warriors 78.1% | L 118-124 ✗ |
| Apr 09, 2026 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | W Golden State Warriors 50.2% | L 103-119 ✗ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | vs Sacramento Kings | W Golden State Warriors 77.5% | W 110-105 ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | vs Houston Rockets | W Golden State Warriors 58.5% | L 116-117 ✗ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | W Golden State Warriors 50.9% | L 111-118 ✗ |
| Apr 01, 2026 | vs San Antonio Spurs | L Golden State Warriors 35.0% | L 113-127 ✓ |
| Mar 29, 2026 | at Denver Nuggets | L Golden State Warriors 13.6% | L 93-116 ✓ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vs Washington Wizards | W Golden State Warriors 81.4% | W 131-126 ✓ |
| Mar 25, 2026 | vs Brooklyn Nets | W Golden State Warriors 76.0% | W 109-106 ✓ |
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