NBA 2025-2026: Utah Jazz vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Utah Jazz

Home Team
42.2%
VS

Philadelphia 76ers

Away Team
57.8%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Cody Williams
OR
99.9
DR
124.1
PTS
7.3
VS
Quentin Grimes
OR
114.7
DR
117.9
PTS
13.7
SG
Elijah Harkless
OR
107.2
DR
121.2
PTS
6.1
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
111.9
DR
116.1
PTS
15.6
SF
John Konchar
OR
97.4
DR
113.3
PTS
2.9
VS
Dominick Barlow
OR
124.2
DR
116.1
PTS
8.3
PF
Ace Bailey
OR
106.3
DR
122.6
PTS
12.8
VS
Justin Edwards
OR
99.9
DR
117.1
PTS
6.2
C
Kyle Filipowski
OR
113.9
DR
118.4
PTS
10.6
VS
Adem Bona
OR
118.8
DR
113.8
PTS
4.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Philadelphia 76ers are predicted to win (57.8% probability). Expected starting five — Utah Jazz: Cody Williams, Elijah Harkless, John Konchar, Ace Bailey, Kyle Filipowski. Expected starting five — Philadelphia 76ers: Quentin Grimes, VJ Edgecombe, Dominick Barlow, Justin Edwards, Adem Bona.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined 232.8 points, pointing to a fast, high-scoring game rather than a grind-it-out defensive battle. The expected spread is -8.26 (home - away), implying the home team, Philadelphia, is favored by roughly eight points and would be expected to cover against Utah.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.8 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Utah Jazz - Philadelphia 76ers) -8.3 Most likely outcome: -9 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Utah’s power rating has dipped slightly over the last five games while Philadelphia’s has been rising.

Utah Jazz

1345.0 -5.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-19 Milwaukee Bucks 1345.0 +15.2
2026-03-18 Minnesota Timberwolves 1329.8 -4.7
2026-03-15 Sacramento Kings 1334.5 -9.7
2026-03-13 Portland Trail Blazers 1344.2 -5.8
2026-03-11 New York Knicks 1350.0 —

Philadelphia 76ers

1508.2 +11.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-19 Sacramento Kings 1508.2 +7.0
2026-03-17 Denver Nuggets 1501.2 -9.6
2026-03-15 Portland Trail Blazers 1510.8 +9.1
2026-03-14 Brooklyn Nets 1501.7 +5.0
2026-03-12 Detroit Pistons 1496.7 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Utah Jazz

1-4 in last 5
W L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Milwaukee Bucks 128 96 +32
Minnesota Timberwolves 111 147 -36
Sacramento Kings 111 116 -5
Portland Trail Blazers 114 124 -10
New York Knicks 117 134 -17

Philadelphia 76ers

3-2 in last 5
W L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Sacramento Kings 139 118 +21
Denver Nuggets 96 124 -28
Portland Trail Blazers 109 103 +6
Brooklyn Nets 104 97 +7
Detroit Pistons 109 131 -22

Game Analysis

Utah is coming off a statement 128-96 win over Milwaukee but has two recent losses: 111-147 to Minnesota and 111-116 to Sacramento, showing inconsistency on defense and volatility in results. Philadelphia has split its last three with two wins (139-118 over Sacramento, 109-103 over Portland) and a heavy 96-124 loss to Denver, indicating they can both score in bunches and be vulnerable to elite offenses. Looking at the projected starters, Utah’s five average an offensive rating of about 104.9 and a defensive rating near 119.9, combining for roughly 39.7 points per game. Philadelphia’s starting five average an offensive rating around 113.9 and a defensive rating near 116.2, combining for about 48.5 points. That edge in both offensive efficiency and starter scoring for Philadelphia helps explain their advantage.

Final Prediction

Philadelphia’s stronger offensive profile among its projected starters and upward momentum give them the edge in this matchup. Watch whether Utah can slow Philly’s starters and prevent a fast, high-scoring affair — that will determine if the 76ers cover the spread.

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