Utah Jazz
Western Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Utah Jazz?
On script 2025-26 · 76 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Utah Jazz were 24.4% easier to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 84.2% | 67.4% | 90.0% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 76 | 76.3% | 67.3% | 84.6% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Utah Jazz won 4 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 0 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | #27 | 1511 | 1511 | 1304 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | #29 | 1489 | 1489 | 1288 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | #24 | 1488 | 1554 | 1385 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | #22 | 1511 | 1566 | 1431 |
| 2021-22 | 88 | #12 | 1511 | 1627 | 1533 |
| 2020-21 | 83 | #6 | 1512 | 1665 | 1615 |
| 2019-20 | 79 | #11 | 1509 | 1625 | 1542 |
| 2018-19 | 87 | #8 | 1511 | 1619 | 1583 |
| 2017-18 | 93 | #4 | 1510 | 1645 | 1621 |
| 2016-17 | 93 | #6 | 1490 | 1609 | 1585 |
| 2015-16 | 82 | #16 | 1491 | 1533 | 1503 |
| 2014-15 | 82 | #15 | 1489 | 1532 | 1524 |
| 2013-14 | 82 | #26 | 1489 | 1489 | 1349 |
| 2012-13 | 82 | #14 | 1511 | 1546 | 1524 |
| 2011-12 | 70 | #14 | 1488 | 1558 | 1534 |
| 2010-11 | 82 | #22 | 1489 | 1591 | 1432 |
| 2009-10 | 92 | #8 | 1490 | 1637 | 1587 |
| 2008-09 | 87 | #12 | 1509 | 1620 | 1535 |
| 2007-08 | 94 | #4 | 1513 | 1668 | 1649 |
| 2006-07 | 99 | #7 | 1510 | 1621 | 1589 |
| 2005-06 | 82 | #13 | 1511 | 1531 | 1515 |
| 2004-05 | 82 | #26 | 1512 | 1550 | 1364 |
| 2003-04 | 82 | #14 | 1510 | 1534 | 1509 |
| 2002-03 | 87 | #10 | 1489 | 1586 | 1540 |
| 2001-02 | 86 | #11 | 1489 | 1567 | 1520 |
| 2000-01 | 87 | #8 | 1510 | 1644 | 1572 |
| 1999-00 | 92 | #9 | 1489 | 1651 | 1583 |
| 1998-99 | 61 | #3 | 1510 | 1654 | 1604 |
| 1997-98 | 102 | #2 | 1489 | 1764 | 1729 |
| 1996-97 | 102 | #2 | 1510 | 1751 | 1727 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Filipowski | C | 36 | 13.7 |
| Cody Williams | SG | 41 | 11.5 |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | C | 42 | 10.7 |
| Ace Bailey | SF | 61 | 9.7 |
| Lauri Markkanen | PF | 36 | 7.2 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | SF | 22 | 6.8 |
| Keyonte George | PG | 48 | 3.9 |
| Jusuf Nurkić | C | 35 | 2.1 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | SF | 35 | 1.6 |
Every Utah Jazz player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Los Angeles Lakers | L Utah Jazz 4.2% | L 107-131 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | W Utah Jazz 62.2% | W 147-101 ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | at New Orleans Pelicans | W Utah Jazz 59.6% | L 137-156 ✗ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Oklahoma City Thunder | L Utah Jazz 1.8% | L 111-146 ✓ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | at Houston Rockets | L Utah Jazz 3.8% | L 106-140 ✓ |
| Apr 01, 2026 | vs Denver Nuggets | L Utah Jazz 12.1% | L 117-130 ✓ |
| Mar 30, 2026 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | L Utah Jazz 15.3% | L 113-122 ✓ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | at Phoenix Suns | L Utah Jazz 9.9% | L 109-134 ✓ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | at Denver Nuggets | L Utah Jazz 6.4% | L 129-135 ✓ |
| Mar 25, 2026 | vs Washington Wizards | L Utah Jazz 44.2% | L 110-133 ✓ |
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