NBA 2025-2026: Charlotte Hornets vs Sacramento Kings: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Charlotte Hornets

Home Team
92.9%
VS

Sacramento Kings

Away Team
7.1%
2025-2026 Season

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Starting Five Matchup

PG
LaMelo Ball
OR
114.8
DR
113.6
PTS
19.7
VS
Devin Carter
OR
97.0
DR
121.3
PTS
7.1
SG
Brandon Miller
OR
112.3
DR
112.7
PTS
20.4
VS
Daeqwon Plowden
OR
107.6
DR
124.6
PTS
9.1
SF
Kon Knueppel
OR
127.0
DR
116.4
PTS
19.1
VS
DeMar DeRozan
OR
121.6
DR
123.4
PTS
18.4
PF
Miles Bridges
OR
118.8
DR
115.5
PTS
17.3
VS
Doug McDermott
OR
93.7
DR
126.8
PTS
5.1
C
Moussa Diabaté
OR
135.6
DR
111.5
PTS
8.0
VS
Maxime Raynaud
OR
113.7
DR
120.6
PTS
11.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Charlotte Hornets are the projected winner with a 92.9% probability. Expected starting five — Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté; Sacramento Kings: Devin Carter, Daeqwon Plowden, DeMar DeRozan, Doug McDermott, Maxime Raynaud.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 226.12 points, pointing to a high-scoring, up-tempo game. The expected spread is 16.45 points (Home - Away), giving a large advantage to the home team; if Charlotte is at home, that margin aligns with the strong Hornets projection.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 226.1 Most likely outcome: 226 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - Sacramento Kings) 16.4 Most likely outcome: 17 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ELO trends are rising, with Charlotte’s momentum more pronounced over the recent stretch.

Charlotte Hornets

1587.9 +18.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-21 Memphis Grizzlies 1587.9 +4.2
2026-03-19 Orlando Magic 1583.7 +10.0
2026-03-17 Miami Heat 1573.7 +11.3
2026-03-14 San Antonio Spurs 1562.4 -6.8
2026-03-11 Sacramento Kings 1569.2 —

Sacramento Kings

1350.2 +8.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-22 Brooklyn Nets 1350.2 +8.8
2026-03-19 Philadelphia 76ers 1341.4 -7.0
2026-03-17 San Antonio Spurs 1348.4 -3.1
2026-03-15 Utah Jazz 1351.5 +9.7
2026-03-14 Los Angeles Clippers 1341.8 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Charlotte Hornets

4-1 in last 5
W W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 124 101 +23
Orlando Magic 130 111 +19
Miami Heat 136 106 +30
San Antonio Spurs 102 115 -13
Sacramento Kings 117 109 +8

Sacramento Kings

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Brooklyn Nets 126 122 +4
Philadelphia 76ers 118 139 -21
San Antonio Spurs 104 132 -28
Utah Jazz 116 111 +5
Los Angeles Clippers 118 109 +9

Game Analysis

Charlotte enters on a three-game winning streak (wins by 23, 19 and 30 points: 124-101, 130-111, 136-106), showing a potent offense and consistent margins. Sacramento is 1-2 in their last three (a 126-122 win sandwiched between 118-139 and 104-132 losses), displaying inconsistency and defensive lapses in the two losses. Power ratings also favor Charlotte, who have climbed +18.7 over five games compared with Sacramento’s +8.4 gain. Looking at the expected starting units, Charlotte’s group averages an offensive rating of 121.7, a defensive rating of 113.9, and 16.9 average points made — solid two-way balance and scoring depth. Sacramento’s projected starters average a 106.7 offensive rating, a 123.3 defensive rating, and 10.3 average points made, indicating offensive limitations and defensive struggles relative to Charlotte. Those gaps in both offense and defense largely explain the wide projected margin.

Final Prediction

Charlotte’s recent form, higher offensive profile (121.7) and significantly better team defense (113.9) give them a clear edge. Key factor to watch: whether Sacramento can slow the Hornets’ scoring — if they can’t, the game likely becomes a blowout.

Get Daily NBA Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel