NBA 2025-2026: Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Memphis Grizzlies

Home Team
31.8%
VS

Houston Rockets

Away Team
68.2%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Javon Small
OR
107.5
DR
121.3
PTS
9.2
VS
Reed Sheppard
OR
116.1
DR
112.5
PTS
13.5
SG
Cedric Coward
OR
114.9
DR
117.3
PTS
13.3
VS
Amen Thompson
OR
123.4
DR
114.1
PTS
17.9
SF
GG Jackson II
OR
102.1
DR
101.7
PTS
12.0
VS
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
122.0
DR
114.6
PTS
15.5
PF
Olivier-Maxence Prosper
OR
109.6
DR
118.6
PTS
9.0
VS
Kevin Durant
OR
124.3
DR
115.0
PTS
26.0
C
Taylor Hendricks
OR
108.2
DR
119.9
PTS
10.9
VS
Alperen Şengün
OR
114.9
DR
111.9
PTS
20.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Houston Rockets are the pick to win this one — 68.2% probability. Expected starting fives — Memphis Grizzlies: Javon Small, Cedric Coward, GG Jackson II, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Taylor Hendricks. Houston Rockets: Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model projects a combined total of 232.51 points, signaling a fast, high-scoring game environment and a likely uptick in possessions and transition opportunities. The expected spread is Home - Away = -4.68, meaning the visiting team (Houston) is favored by roughly 4.7 points — an advantage the Rockets carry into the matchup.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.5 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - Houston Rockets) -4.7 Most likely outcome: -5 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Memphis has been falling in momentum while Houston’s rating has been relatively stable with only a slight dip.

Memphis Grizzlies

1347.3 -15.8 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 San Antonio Spurs 1347.3 -2.6
2026-03-23 Atlanta Hawks 1349.9 -5.4
2026-03-21 Charlotte Hornets 1355.3 -4.3
2026-03-20 Boston Celtics 1359.6 -3.5
2026-03-18 Denver Nuggets 1363.1 —

Houston Rockets

1543.0 -1.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-25 Minnesota Timberwolves 1543.0 -8.2
2026-03-23 Chicago Bulls 1551.2 -13.9
2026-03-21 Miami Heat 1565.1 +8.4
2026-03-20 Atlanta Hawks 1556.7 +11.8
2026-03-18 Los Angeles Lakers 1544.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Memphis Grizzlies

1-4 in last 5
L L L L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 98 123 -25
Atlanta Hawks 107 146 -39
Charlotte Hornets 101 124 -23
Boston Celtics 112 117 -5
Denver Nuggets 125 118 +7

Houston Rockets

2-3 in last 5
L L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 108 110 -2
Chicago Bulls 124 132 -8
Miami Heat 123 122 +1
Atlanta Hawks 117 95 +22
Los Angeles Lakers 116 124 -8

Game Analysis

Memphis comes in on a three-game losing streak with heavy defeats: 98-123, 107-146, and 101-124. Those results point to defensive breakdowns and trouble containing opponents’ scoring runs. Houston’s last three are more competitive: two close losses (108-110, 124-132) and a narrow win (123-122), indicating they’re still in games even when they don’t close them out. Looking at the projected starters, Memphis’ five average an offensive rating of 108.46, a defensive rating of 115.76, and together average 10.88 points each; that profile suggests middling offense and vulnerable defense. Houston’s unit is stronger on both ends: an offensive rating of 120.14, defensive rating of 113.62, and 18.68 average points per starter — led by Kevin Durant’s 26.0 and Alperen Şengün’s 20.5 — giving Houston more firepower and efficiency.

Final Prediction

Houston’s superior offensive efficiency and deeper scoring from its starters give them the clear edge in this matchup. Watch whether Memphis can tighten defense and slow the Rockets’ top-end scorers; that will decide if the spread holds.

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