Houston Rockets
Western Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Houston Rockets?
Chaos team 2025-26 · 82 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Houston Rockets were 10.5% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 61.0% | 67.4% | 72.5% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 82 | 63.4% | 67.3% | 74.2% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Houston Rockets won 2 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 9 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 88 | #11 | 1491 | 1602 | 1580 |
| 2024-25 | 89 | #9 | 1489 | 1625 | 1576 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | #19 | 1488 | 1544 | 1516 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | #28 | 1490 | 1490 | 1358 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | #29 | 1489 | 1501 | 1310 |
| 2020-21 | 72 | #30 | 1491 | 1525 | 1306 |
| 2019-20 | 84 | #9 | 1489 | 1612 | 1551 |
| 2018-19 | 93 | #4 | 1488 | 1674 | 1647 |
| 2017-18 | 99 | #1 | 1511 | 1754 | 1710 |
| 2016-17 | 93 | #4 | 1490 | 1655 | 1600 |
| 2015-16 | 87 | #13 | 1488 | 1533 | 1514 |
| 2014-15 | 99 | #5 | 1512 | 1664 | 1649 |
| 2013-14 | 88 | #8 | 1510 | 1652 | 1590 |
| 2012-13 | 88 | #13 | 1511 | 1574 | 1541 |
| 2011-12 | 66 | #17 | 1490 | 1553 | 1489 |
| 2010-11 | 82 | #12 | 1491 | 1576 | 1553 |
| 2009-10 | 82 | #17 | 1490 | 1560 | 1496 |
| 2008-09 | 95 | #6 | 1510 | 1653 | 1639 |
| 2007-08 | 88 | #7 | 1511 | 1684 | 1624 |
| 2006-07 | 89 | #8 | 1490 | 1615 | 1576 |
| 2005-06 | 82 | #22 | 1510 | 1519 | 1449 |
| 2004-05 | 89 | #6 | 1490 | 1669 | 1638 |
| 2003-04 | 87 | #13 | 1511 | 1585 | 1513 |
| 2002-03 | 82 | #14 | 1490 | 1559 | 1522 |
| 2001-02 | 82 | #26 | 1509 | 1534 | 1375 |
| 2000-01 | 82 | #11 | 1489 | 1581 | 1558 |
| 1999-00 | 82 | #19 | 1489 | 1489 | 1474 |
| 1998-99 | 54 | #13 | 1490 | 1592 | 1534 |
| 1997-98 | 87 | #18 | 1510 | 1562 | 1492 |
| 1996-97 | 98 | #5 | 1510 | 1656 | 1640 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reed Sheppard | PG | 26 | 7.9 |
| Alperen Şengün | C | 72 | 7.5 |
| Josh Okogie | SG | 30 | 3.6 |
| Tari Eason | PF | 37 | 1.8 |
| Kevin Durant | PF | 73 | 0.4 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | PF | 78 | -1.0 |
| Amen Thompson | SF | 79 | -1.5 |
Every Houston Rockets player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 01, 2026 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | W Houston Rockets 77.2% | L 78-98 ✗ |
| Apr 29, 2026 | at Los Angeles Lakers | L Houston Rockets 14.7% | W 99-93 ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | W Houston Rockets 82.0% | W 115-96 ✓ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs Los Angeles Lakers | W Houston Rockets 75.1% | L 108-112 ✗ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at Los Angeles Lakers | W Houston Rockets 54.2% | L 94-101 ✗ |
| Apr 18, 2026 | at Los Angeles Lakers | W Houston Rockets 55.7% | L 98-107 ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Memphis Grizzlies | W Houston Rockets 82.9% | W 132-101 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | W Houston Rockets 74.6% | L 132-136 ✗ |
| Apr 09, 2026 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | W Houston Rockets 66.7% | W 113-102 ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | at Phoenix Suns | W Houston Rockets 51.6% | W 119-105 ✓ |
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