Memphis Grizzlies
Western Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record · includes the Vancouver Grizzlies years
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Memphis Grizzlies?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 76 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Memphis Grizzlies were 0.8% easier to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 76 | 68.4% | 67.4% | 78.1% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 79 | 78.5% | 67.3% | 86.4% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Memphis Grizzlies won 3 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 4 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | #28 | 1510 | 1510 | 1301 |
| 2024-25 | 86 | #15 | 1511 | 1623 | 1515 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | #25 | 1489 | 1489 | 1362 |
| 2022-23 | 88 | #11 | 1509 | 1624 | 1552 |
| 2021-22 | 94 | #6 | 1510 | 1665 | 1621 |
| 2020-21 | 77 | #15 | 1488 | 1552 | 1521 |
| 2019-20 | 73 | #17 | 1489 | 1543 | 1496 |
| 2018-19 | 82 | #23 | 1488 | 1566 | 1424 |
| 2017-18 | 82 | #29 | 1510 | 1538 | 1307 |
| 2016-17 | 88 | #17 | 1509 | 1575 | 1485 |
| 2015-16 | 86 | #19 | 1487 | 1564 | 1444 |
| 2014-15 | 93 | #6 | 1509 | 1650 | 1615 |
| 2013-14 | 89 | #5 | 1490 | 1630 | 1608 |
| 2012-13 | 97 | #4 | 1490 | 1684 | 1641 |
| 2011-12 | 73 | #6 | 1490 | 1599 | 1588 |
| 2010-11 | 95 | #6 | 1488 | 1618 | 1600 |
| 2009-10 | 82 | #18 | 1487 | 1574 | 1472 |
| 2008-09 | 82 | #25 | 1490 | 1500 | 1382 |
| 2007-08 | 82 | #25 | 1490 | 1490 | 1338 |
| 2006-07 | 82 | #28 | 1489 | 1500 | 1364 |
| 2005-06 | 86 | #11 | 1488 | 1584 | 1550 |
| 2004-05 | 86 | #16 | 1488 | 1585 | 1517 |
| 2003-04 | 86 | #9 | 1490 | 1648 | 1558 |
| 2002-03 | 82 | #24 | 1488 | 1488 | 1409 |
| 2001-02 | 82 | #27 | 1489 | 1489 | 1361 |
| 2000-01 as Vancouver Grizzlies | 82 | #26 | 1510 | 1531 | 1348 |
| 1999-00 as Vancouver Grizzlies | 82 | #26 | 1488 | 1498 | 1345 |
| 1998-99 as Vancouver Grizzlies | 50 | #29 | 1489 | 1495 | 1293 |
| 1997-98 as Vancouver Grizzlies | 82 | #26 | 1489 | 1499 | 1294 |
| 1996-97 as Vancouver Grizzlies | 82 | #29 | 1487 | 1487 | 1261 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| GG Jackson II | PF | 28 | 13.5 |
| Cam Spencer | SG | 20 | 2.3 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | PF | 24 | 2.1 |
| Cedric Coward | SG | 47 | 2.0 |
| Jaylen Wells | SG | 63 | 1.0 |
Every Memphis Grizzlies player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Houston Rockets | L Memphis Grizzlies 17.1% | L 101-132 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Utah Jazz | L Memphis Grizzlies 37.8% | L 101-147 ✓ |
| Apr 08, 2026 | at Denver Nuggets | L Memphis Grizzlies 2.0% | L 119-136 ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | vs Cleveland Cavaliers | L Memphis Grizzlies 33.0% | L 126-142 ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Milwaukee Bucks | W Memphis Grizzlies 56.3% | L 115-131 ✗ |
| Apr 03, 2026 | vs Toronto Raptors | L Memphis Grizzlies 31.7% | L 96-128 ✓ |
| Apr 01, 2026 | vs New York Knicks | W Memphis Grizzlies 53.6% | L 119-130 ✗ |
| Mar 30, 2026 | vs Phoenix Suns | L Memphis Grizzlies 29.8% | L 105-131 ✓ |
| Mar 28, 2026 | vs Chicago Bulls | W Memphis Grizzlies 61.8% | W 125-124 ✓ |
| Mar 27, 2026 | vs Houston Rockets | L Memphis Grizzlies 31.8% | L 109-119 ✓ |
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