NBA 2025-2026: Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Denver Nuggets

Home Team
86.4%
VS

Golden State Warriors

Away Team
13.6%
2025-2026 Season

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jamal Murray
OR
124.7
DR
120.1
PTS
25.5
VS
De'Anthony Melton
OR
98.2
DR
113.1
PTS
13.0
SG
Christian Braun
OR
123.1
DR
118.2
PTS
11.6
VS
Brandin Podziemski
OR
114.2
DR
115.2
PTS
13.2
SF
Aaron Gordon
OR
121.3
DR
115.4
PTS
16.6
VS
Draymond Green
OR
102.2
DR
114.2
PTS
8.5
PF
Cameron Johnson
OR
122.7
DR
118.9
PTS
11.9
VS
Gui Santos
OR
116.3
DR
114.2
PTS
8.9
C
Nikola Jokić
OR
135.3
DR
112.7
PTS
27.9
VS
Kristaps Porziņģis
OR
112.2
DR
116.5
PTS
17.1
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Denver Nuggets to win (Probability: 86.4%). Expected starting five — Denver: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, Nikola Jokić. Golden State: De'Anthony Melton, Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gui Santos, Kristaps Porziņģis.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 232.16 points, indicating a high-scoring game and a fairly fast pace with both teams able to put up points. The expected spread (Home - Away) is 11.02 in favor of Denver, giving the Nuggets a sizable edge on the scoreboard and suggesting a comfortable margin if they execute.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 232.2 Most likely outcome: 232 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Denver Nuggets - Golden State Warriors) 11.0 Most likely outcome: 11 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show rising Elo momentum over the last five games, with Denver climbing faster than Golden State.

Denver Nuggets

1585.1 +24.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-27 Utah Jazz 1585.1 +2.9
2026-03-25 Dallas Mavericks 1582.2 +3.9
2026-03-24 Phoenix Suns 1578.3 +9.4
2026-03-22 Portland Trail Blazers 1568.9 +8.5
2026-03-20 Toronto Raptors 1560.4 —

Golden State Warriors

1465.2 +11.0 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-27 Washington Wizards 1465.2 +5.3
2026-03-25 Brooklyn Nets 1459.9 +5.0
2026-03-23 Dallas Mavericks 1454.9 +8.2
2026-03-21 Atlanta Hawks 1446.7 -7.5
2026-03-20 Detroit Pistons 1454.2 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Denver Nuggets

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Utah Jazz 135 129 +6
Dallas Mavericks 142 135 +7
Phoenix Suns 125 123 +2
Portland Trail Blazers 128 112 +16
Toronto Raptors 121 115 +6

Golden State Warriors

3-2 in last 5
W W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Washington Wizards 131 126 +5
Brooklyn Nets 109 106 +3
Dallas Mavericks 137 131 +6
Atlanta Hawks 110 126 -16
Detroit Pistons 101 115 -14

Game Analysis

Both clubs arrive on three-game win streaks: Denver beat Utah 135-129, Dallas 142-135, and Phoenix 125-123; Golden State defeated Washington 131-126, Brooklyn 109-106, and Dallas 137-131. Denver’s recent wins include very high scoring outputs, while Golden State has been stringing together wins with mixed defensive and offensive performances. Looking at the projected starters, Denver’s five average an offensive rating of 125.42, defensive rating of 117.06, and combined average points made of 93.5 (18.7 per starter). Golden State’s starting five average an offensive rating of 108.62, defensive rating of 114.64, and combined average points made of 60.7 (12.14 per starter). The Nuggets’ higher offensive profile — led by Nikola Jokić’s 135.3 offensive rating and 27.9 scoring average — should create matchup problems for the Warriors despite Golden State’s respectable defensive numbers.

Final Prediction

Denver’s offensive firepower and stronger recent momentum explain the large probability and 11.02-point edge. Watch whether Golden State can slow Nikola Jokić and reduce Denver’s scoring efficiency; that matchup will decide how close this game becomes.

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