NBA 2025-2026: Portland Trail Blazers vs Washington Wizards: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Portland Trail Blazers

Home Team
87.0%
VS

Washington Wizards

Away Team
13.0%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Jrue Holiday
OR
115.2
DR
116.3
PTS
15.9
VS
Bub Carrington
OR
107.6
DR
124.8
PTS
10.3
SG
Deni Avdija
OR
115.8
DR
115.6
PTS
23.9
VS
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
108.7
DR
119.6
PTS
11.5
SF
Sidy Cissoko
OR
103.5
DR
117.3
PTS
5.5
VS
Leaky Black
OR
125.4
DR
125.4
PTS
8.5
PF
Toumani Camara
OR
112.2
DR
116.8
PTS
12.9
VS
Will Riley
OR
106.6
DR
124.7
PTS
9.3
C
Donovan Clingan
OR
129.3
DR
110.4
PTS
12.3
VS
Tristan Vukcevic
OR
93.1
DR
122.7
PTS
8.7
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Portland Trail Blazers are projected to win (87.0% probability). Expected starters — Portland: Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija, Sidy Cissoko, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan. Washington: Bub Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly, Leaky Black, Will Riley, Tristan Vukcevic.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model pegs the game at a combined 233.26 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring contest with a solid offensive pace and scoring upside on both ends. The expected spread (home − away) is 11.89 points, giving a large advantage to the home side; with Portland favored, that margin implies they’re expected to control tempo and margin.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 233.3 Most likely outcome: 233 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - Washington Wizards) 11.9 Most likely outcome: 12 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Portland’s power rating has dipped slightly over five games (down 7.4), while Washington’s has inched up modestly (up 3.4).

Portland Trail Blazers

1491.9 -7.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-27 Dallas Mavericks 1491.9 -13.8
2026-03-25 Milwaukee Bucks 1505.7 +8.8
2026-03-23 Brooklyn Nets 1496.9 +6.1
2026-03-22 Denver Nuggets 1490.8 -8.5
2026-03-20 Minnesota Timberwolves 1499.3 —

Washington Wizards

1307.3 +3.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-27 Golden State Warriors 1307.3 -5.3
2026-03-25 Utah Jazz 1312.6 +13.7
2026-03-22 New York Knicks 1298.9 -2.9
2026-03-21 Oklahoma City Thunder 1301.8 -2.1
2026-03-19 Detroit Pistons 1303.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Portland Trail Blazers

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Dallas Mavericks 93 100 -7
Milwaukee Bucks 130 99 +31
Brooklyn Nets 134 99 +35
Denver Nuggets 112 128 -16
Minnesota Timberwolves 108 104 +4

Washington Wizards

1-4 in last 5
L W L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Golden State Warriors 126 131 -5
Utah Jazz 133 110 +23
New York Knicks 113 145 -32
Oklahoma City Thunder 111 132 -21
Detroit Pistons 95 117 -22

Game Analysis

Portland arrives off two convincing blowouts (134-99 vs Brooklyn, 130-99 vs Milwaukee) before a narrow 93-100 loss to Dallas — a recent stretch that shows they can both score in bunches and play stingy defense. Washington has been streaky: a 133-110 win over Utah sandwiched between a tight 126-131 loss to Golden State and a rough 113-145 defeat at New York, pointing to inconsistency on defense and swings in scoring. Looking at the projected fives, Portland’s group averages an offensive rating of 115.2, defensive rating of 115.28, and 14.1 points made per starter. Washington’s projected five averages an offensive rating of 108.28, defensive rating of 123.44, and 9.66 points made per starter. Those gaps — notably Washington’s higher defensive rating and lower scoring output — help explain the sizable edge for Portland.

Final Prediction

Portland’s combination of more efficient starters and recent big wins gives them a clear edge. Watch Donovan Clingan’s two-way impact and how Washington’s efficient-but-underscoring pieces like Leaky Black translate that efficiency into actual scoring.

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