Portland Trail Blazers
Western Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Portland Trail Blazers?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 81 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Portland Trail Blazers were 7.0% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 81 | 65.4% | 67.4% | 71.9% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 75 | 62.7% | 67.3% | 73.2% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Portland Trail Blazers won 6 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 3 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 87 | #17 | 1489 | 1533 | 1516 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | #16 | 1486 | 1515 | 1495 |
| 2023-24 | 82 | #27 | 1490 | 1500 | 1322 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | #27 | 1511 | 1553 | 1369 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | #30 | 1489 | 1525 | 1301 |
| 2020-21 | 78 | #9 | 1488 | 1587 | 1562 |
| 2019-20 | 79 | #15 | 1489 | 1539 | 1508 |
| 2018-19 | 98 | #5 | 1510 | 1659 | 1618 |
| 2017-18 | 86 | #12 | 1515 | 1637 | 1562 |
| 2016-17 | 86 | #13 | 1510 | 1556 | 1523 |
| 2015-16 | 93 | #6 | 1511 | 1604 | 1594 |
| 2014-15 | 87 | #13 | 1511 | 1636 | 1525 |
| 2013-14 | 93 | #7 | 1490 | 1635 | 1595 |
| 2012-13 | 82 | #25 | 1510 | 1538 | 1393 |
| 2011-12 | 66 | #22 | 1509 | 1547 | 1422 |
| 2010-11 | 88 | #9 | 1510 | 1604 | 1575 |
| 2009-10 | 88 | #10 | 1510 | 1606 | 1576 |
| 2008-09 | 88 | #7 | 1489 | 1642 | 1620 |
| 2007-08 | 82 | #18 | 1490 | 1586 | 1478 |
| 2006-07 | 82 | #23 | 1511 | 1520 | 1414 |
| 2005-06 | 82 | #30 | 1491 | 1496 | 1291 |
| 2004-05 | 82 | #27 | 1511 | 1523 | 1361 |
| 2003-04 | 82 | #11 | 1490 | 1550 | 1518 |
| 2002-03 | 89 | #7 | 1510 | 1613 | 1578 |
| 2001-02 | 85 | #7 | 1490 | 1641 | 1571 |
| 2000-01 | 85 | #15 | 1489 | 1644 | 1524 |
| 1999-00 | 98 | #2 | 1512 | 1694 | 1664 |
| 1998-99 | 63 | #5 | 1491 | 1641 | 1599 |
| 1997-98 | 86 | #15 | 1489 | 1572 | 1509 |
| 1996-97 | 86 | #11 | 1513 | 1594 | 1569 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jerami Grant | PF | 38 | 9.8 |
| Sidy Cissoko | SF | 26 | 7.1 |
| Donovan Clingan | C | 76 | 5.0 |
| Toumani Camara | PF | 81 | 5.0 |
| Jrue Holiday | PG | 50 | 4.3 |
| Deni Avdija | SF | 65 | 3.4 |
| Shaedon Sharpe | SG | 36 | 0.2 |
Every Portland Trail Blazers player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | at San Antonio Spurs | L Portland Trail Blazers 22.0% | L 95-114 ✓ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | vs San Antonio Spurs | W Portland Trail Blazers 51.0% | L 93-114 ✗ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | vs San Antonio Spurs | L Portland Trail Blazers 45.2% | L 108-120 ✓ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | at San Antonio Spurs | L Portland Trail Blazers 20.6% | W 106-103 ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at San Antonio Spurs | L Portland Trail Blazers 20.6% | L 98-111 ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Sacramento Kings | W Portland Trail Blazers 82.4% | W 122-110 ✓ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs Los Angeles Clippers | W Portland Trail Blazers 55.7% | W 116-97 ✓ |
| Apr 08, 2026 | at San Antonio Spurs | L Portland Trail Blazers 48.8% | L 101-112 ✓ |
| Apr 06, 2026 | at Denver Nuggets | L Portland Trail Blazers 26.0% | L 132-137 ✓ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | W Portland Trail Blazers 57.3% | W 118-106 ✓ |
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