NBA 2025-2026: Memphis Grizzlies vs Phoenix Suns: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Memphis Grizzlies

Home Team
29.8%
VS

Phoenix Suns

Away Team
70.2%
2025-2026 Season

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Starting Five Matchup

PG
Cedric Coward
OR
115.4
DR
117.1
PTS
13.5
VS
Collin Gillespie
OR
119.4
DR
115.2
PTS
13.1
SG
Rayan Rupert
OR
103.8
DR
120.8
PTS
10.1
VS
Devin Booker
OR
118.7
DR
117.2
PTS
25.5
SF
Walter Clayton Jr.
OR
0.0
DR
0.0
PTS
0.0
VS
Jalen Green
OR
102.2
DR
114.5
PTS
18.2
PF
GG Jackson II
OR
101.1
DR
102.6
PTS
12.0
VS
Royce O'Neale
OR
116.2
DR
114.5
PTS
10.0
C
Taylor Hendricks
OR
105.7
DR
120.0
PTS
10.6
VS
Oso Ighodaro
OR
117.7
DR
112.6
PTS
6.5
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model favors the Phoenix Suns to win (70.2% probability). Expected starting five — Memphis Grizzlies: Cedric Coward, Rayan Rupert, Walter Clayton Jr., GG Jackson II, Taylor Hendricks. Expected starting five — Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Royce O'Neale, Oso Ighodaro.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The game’s expected total is 226.85 points, pointing toward a moderately high-scoring affair if both teams hit their offensive marks. The spread (Home - Away = -8.6) implies the away team is favored by about 8.6 points, giving a sizable edge to the road side in this matchup.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 226.8 Most likely outcome: 226 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - Phoenix Suns) -8.6 Most likely outcome: -9 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Memphis’s power rating is slightly down over the last five games, while Phoenix’s rating has dipped more noticeably.

Memphis Grizzlies

1352.4 -2.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-28 Chicago Bulls 1352.4 +10.5
2026-03-27 Houston Rockets 1341.9 -5.4
2026-03-25 San Antonio Spurs 1347.3 -2.6
2026-03-23 Atlanta Hawks 1349.9 -5.4
2026-03-21 Charlotte Hornets 1355.3 —

Phoenix Suns

1521.1 -5.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-28 Utah Jazz 1521.1 +4.5
2026-03-24 Denver Nuggets 1516.6 -9.4
2026-03-22 Toronto Raptors 1526.0 +12.2
2026-03-21 Milwaukee Bucks 1513.8 -13.2
2026-03-19 San Antonio Spurs 1527.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Memphis Grizzlies

1-4 in last 5
W L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Chicago Bulls 125 124 +1
Houston Rockets 109 119 -10
San Antonio Spurs 98 123 -25
Atlanta Hawks 107 146 -39
Charlotte Hornets 101 124 -23

Phoenix Suns

2-3 in last 5
W L W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Utah Jazz 134 109 +25
Denver Nuggets 123 125 -2
Toronto Raptors 120 98 +22
Milwaukee Bucks 105 108 -3
San Antonio Spurs 100 101 -1

Game Analysis

Memphis has gone 1-2 over the last three games, edging Chicago 125-124 before losses to Houston (109-119) and San Antonio (98-123). That sequence highlights offensive inconsistency and defensive lapses in the two defeats. Phoenix is 2-1 in its last three, posting dominant wins of 134-109 and 120-98 with a narrow 123-125 loss to Denver, showing steadier scoring output and better margin control. Looking at the projected starters, Memphis’s five average to an offensive rating of 85.2, defensive rating of 92.1 and 9.24 average points made — figures pulled down by Walter Clayton Jr.’s zeros in the dataset. Phoenix’s starting five average an offensive rating of 114.84, defensive rating of 114.8 and 14.66 average points made, led by Devin Booker’s 25.5 scoring mark; those numbers suggest Phoenix brings more reliable firepower from its projected unit.

Final Prediction

Phoenix’s stronger offensive profile among the projected starters and recent decisively high-scoring wins give them the edge. Watch Devin Booker’s scoring and how Memphis adjusts defensively — that matchup will likely decide if the Suns cover the predicted margin.

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