Phoenix Suns
Western Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Phoenix Suns?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 79 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Phoenix Suns were 1.8% easier to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 79 | 65.8% | 67.4% | 88.9% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 75 | 76.0% | 67.3% | 87.1% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Phoenix Suns won 2 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 1 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 86 | #19 | 1509 | 1585 | 1502 |
| 2024-25 | 82 | #21 | 1511 | 1564 | 1441 |
| 2023-24 | 86 | #9 | 1511 | 1608 | 1568 |
| 2022-23 | 93 | #8 | 1509 | 1585 | 1563 |
| 2021-22 | 95 | #3 | 1488 | 1720 | 1642 |
| 2020-21 | 94 | #2 | 1509 | 1715 | 1670 |
| 2019-20 | 73 | #12 | 1512 | 1539 | 1539 |
| 2018-19 | 82 | #28 | 1511 | 1511 | 1316 |
| 2017-18 | 82 | #30 | 1485 | 1498 | 1298 |
| 2016-17 | 82 | #30 | 1488 | 1488 | 1343 |
| 2015-16 | 82 | #27 | 1488 | 1521 | 1340 |
| 2014-15 | 82 | #20 | 1511 | 1557 | 1462 |
| 2013-14 | 82 | #10 | 1510 | 1587 | 1567 |
| 2012-13 | 82 | #27 | 1489 | 1499 | 1352 |
| 2011-12 | 66 | #15 | 1489 | 1558 | 1530 |
| 2010-11 | 82 | #16 | 1490 | 1540 | 1486 |
| 2009-10 | 98 | #3 | 1510 | 1693 | 1667 |
| 2008-09 | 82 | #11 | 1511 | 1558 | 1538 |
| 2007-08 | 87 | #8 | 1511 | 1628 | 1605 |
| 2006-07 | 93 | #3 | 1490 | 1703 | 1647 |
| 2005-06 | 102 | #5 | 1489 | 1659 | 1602 |
| 2004-05 | 97 | #2 | 1512 | 1715 | 1681 |
| 2003-04 | 82 | #21 | 1491 | 1502 | 1430 |
| 2002-03 | 88 | #11 | 1490 | 1579 | 1538 |
| 2001-02 | 82 | #22 | 1489 | 1554 | 1439 |
| 2000-01 | 86 | #7 | 1491 | 1624 | 1591 |
| 1999-00 | 91 | #4 | 1491 | 1637 | 1614 |
| 1998-99 | 53 | #15 | 1511 | 1551 | 1520 |
| 1997-98 | 86 | #7 | 1510 | 1635 | 1614 |
| 1996-97 | 87 | #14 | 1490 | 1578 | 1549 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Green | SG | 31 | 16.0 |
| Oso Ighodaro | PF | 24 | 11.8 |
| Collin Gillespie | PG | 61 | 6.3 |
| Dillon Brooks | SF | 57 | 5.6 |
| Mark Williams | C | 52 | 3.4 |
| Royce O'Neale | SF | 63 | 1.5 |
| Devin Booker | SG | 61 | 1.4 |
| Grayson Allen | SG | 20 | -3.5 |
Every Phoenix Suns player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | W Phoenix Suns 51.1% | L 122-131 ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Oklahoma City Thunder | L Phoenix Suns 36.9% | L 109-121 ✓ |
| Apr 22, 2026 | at Oklahoma City Thunder | L Phoenix Suns 6.7% | L 107-120 ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Oklahoma City Thunder | L Phoenix Suns 7.5% | L 84-119 ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Oklahoma City Thunder | L Phoenix Suns 28.5% | W 135-103 ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Los Angeles Lakers | W Phoenix Suns 64.8% | L 73-101 ✗ |
| Apr 08, 2026 | vs Dallas Mavericks | W Phoenix Suns 72.8% | W 112-107 ✓ |
| Apr 07, 2026 | vs Houston Rockets | L Phoenix Suns 48.4% | L 105-119 ✓ |
| Apr 05, 2026 | at Chicago Bulls | W Phoenix Suns 61.7% | W 120-110 ✓ |
| Apr 02, 2026 | at Charlotte Hornets | L Phoenix Suns 45.3% | L 107-127 ✓ |
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