NBA 2025-2026: Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Charlotte Hornets

Home Team
54.7%
VS

Phoenix Suns

Away Team
45.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Charlotte Hornets
PTS 21.1 REB 4.8 AST 7.0 3PM 3.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.6 REB 5.1 AST 3.8 3PM 3.1
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PTS 18.0 REB 5.8 AST 3.6 3PM 2.9
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PTS 17.2 REB 5.7 AST 3.0 3PM 1.8
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PTS 9.3 REB 9.2 AST 1.9 3PM 0.0
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AWAY Phoenix Suns
PTS 12.7 REB 3.3 AST 4.3 3PM 2.9
Distribution (PDF)
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PTS 25.9 REB 3.6 AST 5.5 3PM 2.2
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.9 REB 3.9 AST 3.2 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 18.6 REB 4.1 AST 1.4 3PM 2.1
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PTS 10.1 REB 6.4 AST 1.3 3PM 0.2
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
LaMelo Ball
OR
115.5
DR
113.3
PTS
19.6
VS
Collin Gillespie
OR
119.2
DR
115.1
PTS
13.1
SG
Brandon Miller
OR
114.4
DR
112.7
PTS
20.4
VS
Devin Booker
OR
119.2
DR
117.0
PTS
25.8
SF
Kon Knueppel
OR
125.8
DR
116.1
PTS
18.8
VS
Jalen Green
OR
101.7
DR
113.8
PTS
18.0
PF
Miles Bridges
OR
119.6
DR
115.0
PTS
17.1
VS
Dillon Brooks
OR
109.1
DR
116.4
PTS
20.6
C
Moussa Diabaté
OR
136.0
DR
111.1
PTS
8.1
VS
Mark Williams
OR
131.4
DR
110.2
PTS
11.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Charlotte Hornets to win (54.7%). Expected starting five — Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabaté. Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie, Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Mark Williams.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 225.38 points, pointing to a moderately high-scoring game and a solid offensive pace from both clubs. The expected spread (Home − Away) is 6.55, meaning the home team starts with about a 6.6-point edge; that cushion could be decisive depending on which squad has home court.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 225.4 Most likely outcome: 225 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Charlotte Hornets - Phoenix Suns) 6.5 Most likely outcome: 6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams show slightly falling momentum over the last five games (Charlotte −6.5, Phoenix −8.1).

Charlotte Hornets

1586.1 -6.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-31 Brooklyn Nets 1586.1 +4.4
2026-03-29 Boston Celtics 1581.7 -9.9
2026-03-28 Philadelphia 76ers 1591.6 -12.3
2026-03-26 New York Knicks 1603.9 +11.3
2026-03-24 Sacramento Kings 1592.6 —

Phoenix Suns

1517.9 -8.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-03-31 Orlando Magic 1517.9 -10.1
2026-03-30 Memphis Grizzlies 1528.0 +6.9
2026-03-28 Utah Jazz 1521.1 +4.5
2026-03-24 Denver Nuggets 1516.6 -9.4
2026-03-22 Toronto Raptors 1526.0 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Charlotte Hornets

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Brooklyn Nets 117 86 +31
Boston Celtics 99 114 -15
Philadelphia 76ers 114 118 -4
New York Knicks 114 103 +11
Sacramento Kings 134 90 +44

Phoenix Suns

3-2 in last 5
L W W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Orlando Magic 111 115 -4
Memphis Grizzlies 131 105 +26
Utah Jazz 134 109 +25
Denver Nuggets 123 125 -2
Toronto Raptors 120 98 +22

Game Analysis

Charlotte is 1-2 in their last three with a lopsided 117–86 win over Brooklyn sandwiched between competitive losses to Boston (99–114) and Philadelphia (114–118), suggesting highs on offense and some defensive inconsistency. Phoenix is 2-1 in the same span, riding big scoring nights in wins over Memphis (131–105) and Utah (134–109) before a 111–115 loss to Orlando, showing they can explode offensively but can also be contained in closer games. Looking at the projected fives, Charlotte’s starters average an offensive rating of 122.26 and a defensive rating of 113.64, with an average 16.80 points made per starter. Phoenix’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 116.12 and a defensive rating of 114.50, with 17.62 points made per starter. That suggests Charlotte’s starting group is more efficient offensively and slightly better on defense overall, while Phoenix brings a little more raw scoring from individual starters.

Final Prediction

Charlotte’s higher combined offensive efficiency (122.26 vs. 116.12) and marginally better team defense give them the edge in a game the model projects them to win. Key factor to watch: whether Phoenix’s high-scoring bursts hold up against Charlotte’s more efficient starting lineup.

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