NBA 2025-2026: Milwaukee Bucks vs Boston Celtics: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Milwaukee Bucks
Home Team
13.1%
VS
Boston Celtics
Away Team
86.9%
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AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Milwaukee Bucks
Ryan Rollins
PTS
20.6
REB
4.6
AST
6.1
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Gary Trent Jr.
PTS
11.8
REB
2.8
AST
2.4
3PM
2.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Kyle Kuzma
PTS
18.2
REB
5.6
AST
3.8
3PM
1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Myles Turner
PTS
12.9
REB
6.2
AST
1.9
3PM
2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Ousmane Dieng
PTS
15.1
REB
5.7
AST
4.3
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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AWAY Boston Celtics
Derrick White
PTS
16.3
REB
4.1
AST
5.1
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jaylen Brown
PTS
30.2
REB
6.6
AST
6.4
3PM
2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Jayson Tatum
PTS
24.0
REB
9.5
AST
6.0
3PM
3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Sam Hauser
PTS
10.7
REB
3.9
AST
1.4
3PM
2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Neemias Queta
PTS
11.9
REB
8.7
AST
1.8
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(Rebounds > X)
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Starting Five Matchup
PG
Ryan Rollins
OR
112.1
DR
118.0
PTS
17.1
VS
Derrick White
OR
117.0
DR
112.6
PTS
16.8
SG
Gary Trent Jr.
OR
99.7
DR
123.4
PTS
8.2
VS
Jaylen Brown
OR
114.8
DR
113.7
PTS
28.8
SF
Kyle Kuzma
OR
110.9
DR
119.0
PTS
13.2
VS
Jayson Tatum
OR
111.2
DR
108.3
PTS
21.2
PF
Myles Turner
OR
109.0
DR
116.0
PTS
11.9
VS
Sam Hauser
OR
116.1
DR
115.6
PTS
9.1
C
Ousmane Dieng
OR
97.6
DR
121.3
PTS
10.6
VS
Neemias Queta
OR
135.5
DR
108.3
PTS
10.0
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Boston Celtics are the pick to win (86.9% probability).
Expected starting five — Milwaukee Bucks: Ryan Rollins, Gary Trent Jr., Kyle Kuzma, Myles Turner, Ousmane Dieng
Expected starting five — Boston Celtics: Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Sam Hauser, Neemias Queta
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model projects a combined total of 224.78 points, suggesting this will be a relatively high-scoring game with an up-tempo look. The expected spread is -8.71 (Home - Away), which gives Boston an 8.71-point edge as the favorite.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
224.8
Most likely outcome: 224 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Milwaukee Bucks - Boston Celtics)
-8.7
Most likely outcome: -9 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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ELO Rating Trends
Milwaukee’s power rating has dipped by 4.9 over the last five games, while Boston’s has risen by 13.3, indicating momentum favoring the Celtics.
Milwaukee Bucks
1397.0
-4.9 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Houston Rockets | 1397.0 | -4.8 |
| 2026-03-31 | Dallas Mavericks | 1401.8 | +10.1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1391.7 | -6.6 |
| 2026-03-28 | San Antonio Spurs | 1398.3 | -3.6 |
| 2026-03-25 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1401.9 | — |
Boston Celtics
1646.7
+13.3 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Miami Heat | 1646.7 | +7.8 |
| 2026-03-30 | Atlanta Hawks | 1638.9 | -12.2 |
| 2026-03-29 | Charlotte Hornets | 1651.1 | +9.9 |
| 2026-03-27 | Atlanta Hawks | 1641.2 | +7.8 |
| 2026-03-25 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 1633.4 | — |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form — Last 5 Games
Milwaukee Bucks
1-4 in last 5
L
W
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 113 | 119 | -6 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 123 | 99 | +24 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 113 | 127 | -14 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 95 | 127 | -32 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 99 | 130 | -31 |
Boston Celtics
4-1 in last 5
W
L
W
W
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 147 | 129 | +18 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 102 | 112 | -10 | |
| Charlotte Hornets | 114 | 99 | +15 | |
| Atlanta Hawks | 109 | 102 | +7 | |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 119 | 109 | +10 |
Game Analysis
Milwaukee is 1-2 in its last three games, splitting results with a 123-99 win over Dallas and losses to Houston (113-119) and the Clippers (113-127). Those results show inconsistency on defense, as they allowed 119 and 127 in two of those contests. Boston is 2-1 over its last three, featuring a 147-129 offensive outburst against Miami, a 102-112 loss to Atlanta, and a 114-99 win over Charlotte, demonstrating a potent offense when rolling.
Looking at the expected starting units, Milwaukee’s five average an offensive rating of 105.86, a defensive rating of 119.54, and 12.20 points made per player. Boston’s projected starters average an offensive rating of 118.92, a defensive rating of 111.70, and 17.18 points made per player. Those gaps in both offense and defense favor Boston controlling the game on both ends.
Final Prediction
Boston’s clear edge in offensive and defensive ratings, plus upward momentum, explain the heavy lean toward them. A key factor to watch is whether Milwaukee can slow Boston’s starters and limit that 17.18 average scoring output per Celtic starter.
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