Boston Celtics
Eastern Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Boston Celtics?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 82 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Boston Celtics were 8.0% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 59.8% | 67.4% | 72.1% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 86 | 70.9% | 67.3% | 73.7% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Boston Celtics won 5 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 7 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 89 | #5 | 1489 | 1673 | 1630 |
| 2024-25 | 93 | #4 | 1511 | 1692 | 1652 |
| 2023-24 | 101 | #1 | 1511 | 1759 | 1751 |
| 2022-23 | 102 | #3 | 1510 | 1653 | 1636 |
| 2021-22 | 106 | #2 | 1491 | 1694 | 1656 |
| 2020-21 | 77 | #18 | 1509 | 1552 | 1472 |
| 2019-20 | 89 | #3 | 1490 | 1666 | 1639 |
| 2018-19 | 91 | #9 | 1511 | 1613 | 1579 |
| 2017-18 | 101 | #5 | 1491 | 1638 | 1604 |
| 2016-17 | 100 | #7 | 1509 | 1627 | 1576 |
| 2015-16 | 88 | #11 | 1511 | 1593 | 1553 |
| 2014-15 | 86 | #14 | 1511 | 1554 | 1524 |
| 2013-14 | 82 | #28 | 1490 | 1504 | 1328 |
| 2012-13 | 87 | #17 | 1490 | 1559 | 1482 |
| 2011-12 | 86 | #5 | 1491 | 1626 | 1604 |
| 2010-11 | 91 | #8 | 1510 | 1645 | 1588 |
| 2009-10 | 106 | #4 | 1511 | 1654 | 1634 |
| 2008-09 | 96 | #5 | 1509 | 1687 | 1640 |
| 2007-08 | 108 | #1 | 1511 | 1714 | 1711 |
| 2006-07 | 82 | #29 | 1489 | 1490 | 1353 |
| 2005-06 | 82 | #23 | 1510 | 1510 | 1431 |
| 2004-05 | 89 | #14 | 1489 | 1575 | 1529 |
| 2003-04 | 86 | #22 | 1511 | 1521 | 1425 |
| 2002-03 | 92 | #19 | 1489 | 1569 | 1476 |
| 2001-02 | 98 | #6 | 1512 | 1629 | 1596 |
| 2000-01 | 82 | #21 | 1511 | 1520 | 1461 |
| 1999-00 | 82 | #20 | 1512 | 1531 | 1455 |
| 1998-99 | 50 | #23 | 1488 | 1515 | 1437 |
| 1997-98 | 82 | #20 | 1510 | 1522 | 1458 |
| 1996-97 | 82 | #28 | 1489 | 1489 | 1270 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor Scheierman | SG | 21 | 11.3 |
| Jayson Tatum | PF | 22 | 8.9 |
| Nikola Vučević | C | 43 | 7.4 |
| Jordan Walsh | PF | 25 | 5.3 |
| Neemias Queta | C | 74 | 4.7 |
| Sam Hauser | PF | 53 | 4.5 |
| Payton Pritchard | PG | 43 | 2.1 |
| Derrick White | SG | 77 | 1.9 |
| Jaylen Brown | SF | 71 | -1.5 |
Every Boston Celtics player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 02, 2026 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | W Boston Celtics 63.5% | L 100-109 ✗ |
| Apr 30, 2026 | at Philadelphia 76ers | W Boston Celtics 59.3% | L 93-106 ✗ |
| Apr 28, 2026 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | W Boston Celtics 75.4% | L 97-113 ✗ |
| Apr 26, 2026 | at Philadelphia 76ers | W Boston Celtics 62.0% | W 128-96 ✓ |
| Apr 24, 2026 | at Philadelphia 76ers | L Boston Celtics 46.5% | W 108-100 ✗ |
| Apr 21, 2026 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | W Boston Celtics 77.7% | L 97-111 ✗ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | vs Philadelphia 76ers | W Boston Celtics 77.2% | W 123-91 ✓ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | vs Orlando Magic | L Boston Celtics 27.4% | W 113-108 ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | vs New Orleans Pelicans | W Boston Celtics 95.9% | W 144-118 ✓ |
| Apr 09, 2026 | at New York Knicks | L Boston Celtics 31.9% | L 106-112 ✓ |
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