NBA 2025-2026: Houston Rockets vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread

Houston Rockets

Home Team
66.7%
VS

Philadelphia 76ers

Away Team
33.3%
2025-2026 Season

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Houston Rockets
PTS 13.1 REB 3.5 AST 4.0 3PM 2.9
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Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability — P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.0 REB 7.3 AST 5.7 3PM 0.2
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PTS 15.2 REB 6.4 AST 1.8 3PM 2.7
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PTS 22.4 REB 5.9 AST 5.3 3PM 2.5
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PTS 18.3 REB 8.9 AST 5.6 3PM 0.5
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AWAY Philadelphia 76ers
PTS 26.3 REB 4.2 AST 6.3 3PM 2.8
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PTS 16.8 REB 4.7 AST 4.1 3PM 2.0
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PTS 14.3 REB 5.1 AST 2.0 3PM 1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability — P(Points > X)
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PTS 20.4 REB 5.2 AST 4.4 3PM 2.9
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PTS 28.6 REB 8.7 AST 4.1 3PM 1.9
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View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Reed Sheppard
OR
117.8
DR
112.3
PTS
13.6
VS
Tyrese Maxey
OR
120.9
DR
115.8
PTS
28.4
SG
Amen Thompson
OR
125.0
DR
113.9
PTS
18.0
VS
VJ Edgecombe
OR
113.4
DR
116.7
PTS
16.0
SF
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
122.2
DR
114.5
PTS
15.7
VS
Kelly Oubre Jr.
OR
108.8
DR
117.4
PTS
14.1
PF
Kevin Durant
OR
125.3
DR
114.9
PTS
25.8
VS
Paul George
OR
113.4
DR
112.5
PTS
17.7
C
Alperen Şengün
OR
117.2
DR
111.7
PTS
20.5
VS
Joel Embiid
OR
118.0
DR
114.5
PTS
26.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

I’m taking the Houston Rockets to win (66.7% probability). Expected starting fives — Houston: Reed Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., Kevin Durant, Alperen Şengün; Philadelphia: Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Kelly Oubre Jr., Paul George, Joel Embiid.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The model expects a combined 233.97 points, signaling a fairly high-scoring game and likely uptempo possessions. The expected spread is Home - Away = 7.15, which on paper gives the home team a 7.15-point edge, though the Rockets are still favored to win outright.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 234.0 Most likely outcome: 234 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Houston Rockets - Philadelphia 76ers) 7.2 Most likely outcome: 7 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Houston’s rating is on a clear rise while Philadelphia’s has been comparatively flat with only a modest net gain over the last five games.

Houston Rockets

1594.5 +24.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-07 Phoenix Suns 1594.5 +9.4
2026-04-05 Golden State Warriors 1585.1 +6.7
2026-04-03 Utah Jazz 1578.4 +3.7
2026-04-01 Milwaukee Bucks 1574.7 +4.8
2026-03-31 New York Knicks 1569.9 —

Philadelphia 76ers

1521.3 +4.4 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-04-06 San Antonio Spurs 1521.3 -4.6
2026-04-04 Detroit Pistons 1525.9 -8.1
2026-04-03 Minnesota Timberwolves 1534.0 +11.7
2026-04-01 Washington Wizards 1522.3 +5.4
2026-03-30 Miami Heat 1516.9 —

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form — Last 5 Games

Houston Rockets

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Phoenix Suns 119 105 +14
Golden State Warriors 117 116 +1
Utah Jazz 140 106 +34
Milwaukee Bucks 119 113 +6
New York Knicks 111 94 +17

Philadelphia 76ers

2-3 in last 5
L L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 102 115 -13
Detroit Pistons 93 116 -23
Minnesota Timberwolves 115 103 +12
Washington Wizards 153 131 +22
Miami Heat 109 119 -10

Game Analysis

Houston arrives hot, 3-0 in their last three with a blowout 140-106 win over Utah and solid wins over Phoenix (119-105) and a one-point victory over Golden State (117-116). That’s momentum and confidence on offense. Philadelphia is bumpy — two straight losses (102-115 to San Antonio, 93-116 to Detroit) offset by a bounce-back 115-103 win over Minnesota, suggesting inconsistency on both ends lately. Looking at the projected starters, Houston’s five average an offensive rating of 121.50, a defensive rating of 113.46, and 18.72 points made each. Philly’s projected five average an offensive rating of 114.90, a defensive rating of 115.38, and 20.62 points made each. Houston’s higher collective offensive rating and improving team form could exploit Philadelphia’s defensive middling numbers, while Philly still leans heavily on Maxey and Embiid for scoring.

Final Prediction

The Rockets’ strong offensive profile and clear upward momentum give them the edge despite the nominal home spread. Watch how Philadelphia defends the paint and whether Houston’s ball movement frees Durant and Şengün early — that matchup will decide the game.

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