Atlanta Hawks vs Washington Wizards Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-06

Atlanta Hawks

Home Team
48.2%
VS

Washington Wizards

Away Team
51.8%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Washington Wizards

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +13.9 Washington Wizards
Home-court advantage +7.6 Atlanta Hawks
Recent team form +1.6 Atlanta Hawks

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Washington Wizards. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Atlanta Hawks
PTS 10.1 REB 7.4 AST 4.2 3PM 0.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.8 REB 8.7 AST 6.9 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.8 REB 4.5 AST 5.0 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.0 REB 4.3 AST 2.7 3PM 3.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.5 REB 8.7 AST 2.7 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Washington Wizards
PTS 17.3 REB 5.9 AST 2.0 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.8 REB 7.1 AST 1.7 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 22.4 REB 9.5 AST 2.3 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.8 REB 5.1 AST 4.1 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.5 REB 4.6 AST 7.3 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Dyson Daniels
OR
112.1
DR
105.6
PTS
9.6
VS
AJ Dybantsa
OR
108.2
DR
111.5
PTS
16.5
SG
Jalen Johnson
OR
107.9
DR
109.3
PTS
18.3
VS
Alex Sarr
OR
117.3
DR
107.9
PTS
9.6
SF
Kingston Flemings
OR
99.1
DR
114.0
PTS
8.0
VS
Anthony Davis
OR
108.0
DR
106.0
PTS
23.4
PF
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
OR
113.0
DR
112.2
PTS
21.7
VS
Kyshawn George
OR
107.6
DR
113.9
PTS
17.2
C
Onyeka Okongwu
OR
117.9
DR
111.1
PTS
12.2
VS
Trae Young
OR
117.8
DR
114.1
PTS
19.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Washington is a narrow 52% choice, so the winner forecast is close rather than decisive. Atlanta is expected to start Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Kingston Flemings, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Onyeka Okongwu, while Washington is expected to start AJ Dybantsa, Alex Sarr, Anthony Davis, Kyshawn George and Trae Young.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected 227 points and two-point margin point to a tight, moderately scoring game, with the spread model favoring Atlanta by about two. The winner-probability and point-spread forecasts come from separate models, and both are shown for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 226.6 Most likely outcome: 226 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Atlanta Hawks - Washington Wizards) 2.5 Most likely outcome: 2 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Atlanta’s rating is rising over the last five games, while Washington’s is essentially stable, with a slight dip.

Atlanta Hawks

1512.7 +19.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Washington Wizards 1512.7 +12.0
2026-11-02 Indiana Pacers 1500.7 +9.7
2026-10-31 New Orleans Pelicans 1491.0 -12.4
2026-10-29 Cleveland Cavaliers 1503.4 +10.2
2026-10-28 Miami Heat 1493.2 -

Washington Wizards

1499.7 -0.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Atlanta Hawks 1499.7 -12.0
2026-11-02 Orlando Magic 1511.7 +10.1
2026-10-30 Charlotte Hornets 1501.6 +11.3
2026-10-28 Cleveland Cavaliers 1490.3 -9.5
2026-10-26 Charlotte Hornets 1499.8 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Atlanta Hawks

3-2 in last 5
W W L W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Washington Wizards 120 105 +15
Indiana Pacers 108 104 +4
New Orleans Pelicans 99 121 -22
Cleveland Cavaliers 114 111 +3
Miami Heat 117 129 -12

Washington Wizards

2-3 in last 5
L W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Atlanta Hawks 105 120 -15
Orlando Magic 103 94 +9
Charlotte Hornets 95 79 +16
Cleveland Cavaliers 111 121 -10
Charlotte Hornets 103 110 -7

Game Analysis

The expected starting groups are the clearest divider for Washington: its projected five has more scoring firepower at the top, led by Davis, the highest scorer in the matchup at 23 points per game. Atlanta’s home court offsets much of that lineup advantage, and its starters will need to make the game uncomfortable. Atlanta has won two of its past three, including a 120-105 win over Washington, while the Wizards had won two straight before that defeat. The recent result supports Atlanta’s case, but the forecast gives the starting-five difference more weight than the short-term form.

Final Prediction

A repeat of Atlanta’s 120-105 defensive showing is the clearest route to overturning the forecast, particularly if its starters blunt Washington’s higher-scoring group.

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