Oklahoma City Thunder vs Washington Wizards Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-07

Oklahoma City Thunder

Home Team
82.9%
VS

Washington Wizards

Away Team
17.1%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Oklahoma City Thunder

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +27.0 Oklahoma City Thunder
Home-court advantage +7.6 Oklahoma City Thunder
Recent team form +5.5 Washington Wizards
Home/road record +1.1 Oklahoma City Thunder
Rest & schedule +0.9 Washington Wizards

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 83% for Oklahoma City Thunder. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 9.8 REB 7.2 AST 1.9 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.6 REB 4.8 AST 4.3 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.7 REB 6.0 AST 3.6 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.0 REB 9.7 AST 3.5 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 28.1 REB 4.8 AST 4.8 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Washington Wizards
PTS 16.0 REB 6.1 AST 2.0 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.5 REB 6.9 AST 1.7 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.8 REB 5.1 AST 1.1 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.3 REB 5.2 AST 4.3 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.9 REB 4.6 AST 7.1 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Aday Mara
OR
104.1
DR
107.2
PTS
7.0
VS
AJ Dybantsa
OR
105.4
DR
114.2
PTS
15.4
SG
Ajay Mitchell
OR
116.8
DR
109.2
PTS
19.7
VS
Alex Sarr
OR
117.5
DR
110.1
PTS
10.0
SF
Alex Caruso
OR
159.2
DR
100.8
PTS
8.2
VS
Bilal Coulibaly
OR
116.1
DR
111.9
PTS
8.0
PF
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
114.4
DR
104.3
PTS
7.4
VS
Kyshawn George
OR
112.2
DR
116.3
PTS
19.0
C
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
114.7
DR
110.6
PTS
29.9
VS
Trae Young
OR
116.0
DR
116.9
PTS
20.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Oklahoma City is the clear pick, with an 83% win probability. Its expected starters are Aday Mara, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, while Washington is projected to start AJ Dybantsa, Alex Sarr, Bilal Coulibaly, Kyshawn George and Trae Young.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is 221 total points, with Oklahoma City favored by 11. That points to a moderate-scoring game and a comfortable Thunder win rather than a close finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 221.4 Most likely outcome: 221 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Oklahoma City Thunder - Washington Wizards) 11.3 Most likely outcome: 11 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Oklahoma City's rating is rising over the last five games, while Washington's is essentially stable.

Oklahoma City Thunder

1548.7 +22.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-06 Memphis Grizzlies 1548.7 +13.2
2026-11-04 Cleveland Cavaliers 1535.5 +9.4
2026-11-02 Cleveland Cavaliers 1526.1 +10.8
2026-10-31 Houston Rockets 1515.3 -10.7
2026-10-28 Dallas Mavericks 1526.0 -

Washington Wizards

1490.2 -0.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-06 Atlanta Hawks 1490.2 -9.5
2026-11-04 Atlanta Hawks 1499.7 -12.0
2026-11-02 Orlando Magic 1511.7 +10.1
2026-10-30 Charlotte Hornets 1501.6 +11.3
2026-10-28 Cleveland Cavaliers 1490.3 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Oklahoma City Thunder

3-2 in last 5
W W W L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Memphis Grizzlies 128 97 +31
Cleveland Cavaliers 124 116 +8
Cleveland Cavaliers 117 112 +5
Houston Rockets 98 119 -21
Dallas Mavericks 96 120 -24

Washington Wizards

2-3 in last 5
L L W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Atlanta Hawks 132 139 -7
Atlanta Hawks 105 120 -15
Orlando Magic 103 94 +9
Charlotte Hornets 95 79 +16
Cleveland Cavaliers 111 121 -10

Game Analysis

The biggest separation is in the projected starting groups. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder with an average of 30 points, giving Oklahoma City a top scoring option alongside its home-court advantage. Those are the strongest supports for the Thunder in this matchup. Washington's recent results have been uneven, but Trae Young gives the Wizards a clear scoring counter. He averages 20 points, and a productive night from him could help Washington keep pace with a Thunder lineup that has won three straight. Oklahoma City's rating has also climbed across its last five games, even as the Wizards' rating has held near the same level.

Final Prediction

If Young scores well above his usual level, Washington has a plausible way to narrow the gap. Otherwise, Oklahoma City's stronger projected starting group and home floor point toward a comfortable win.

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