Los Angeles Clippers vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-08

Los Angeles Clippers

Home Team
17.3%
VS

New Orleans Pelicans

Away Team
82.7%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors New Orleans Pelicans

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +32.7 New Orleans Pelicans
Home-court advantage +7.6 Los Angeles Clippers
Recent team form +5.5 New Orleans Pelicans
Season record & ratings +4.5 New Orleans Pelicans
Rest & schedule +1.4 Los Angeles Clippers

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 83% for New Orleans Pelicans. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Los Angeles Clippers
PTS 14.3 REB 6.6 AST 1.7 3PM 1.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.2 REB 3.1 AST 6.0 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 11.2 REB 6.1 AST 1.5 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.2 REB 5.3 AST 3.7 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.1 REB 6.9 AST 2.0 3PM 2.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY New Orleans Pelicans
PTS 3.4 REB 6.1 AST 0.4 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.2 REB 5.5 AST 4.0 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.5 REB 5.7 AST 1.5 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 13.0 REB 4.8 AST 2.6 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.0 REB 6.9 AST 2.6 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Brook Lopez
OR
112.5
DR
114.2
PTS
13.5
VS
DeAndre Jordan
OR
152.5
DR
111.5
PTS
6.0
SG
Darius Garland
OR
100.4
DR
121.2
PTS
20.9
VS
Jeremiah Fears
OR
98.6
DR
115.2
PTS
14.8
SF
Derrick Jones Jr.
OR
125.7
DR
114.6
PTS
11.6
VS
Karlo Matković
OR
122.5
DR
109.4
PTS
10.4
PF
Kris Dunn
OR
117.5
DR
110.0
PTS
8.5
VS
Trey Murphy III
OR
117.0
DR
117.2
PTS
14.2
C
Rui Hachimura
OR
89.3
DR
115.5
PTS
14.7
VS
Zion Williamson
OR
128.0
DR
111.0
PTS
20.6
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

New Orleans is favored to win, with the model giving the Pelicans an 83% chance. The Clippers are expected to start Brook Lopez, Darius Garland, Derrick Jones Jr., Kris Dunn and Rui Hachimura, while New Orleans is projected to start DeAndre Jordan, Jeremiah Fears, Karlo Matković, Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 226 points, with the spread model calling for the Clippers to win by about one, pointing to a close game with a moderate scoring total. The winner-probability model and point-spread model are separate, and both results are shown for transparency, even though they favor different teams.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 225.7 Most likely outcome: 225 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Los Angeles Clippers - New Orleans Pelicans) 1.3 Most likely outcome: 1 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

New Orleans’ rating has risen over its last five games, while the Clippers’ has fallen.

Los Angeles Clippers

1442.2 -38.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-04 Miami Heat 1442.2 -10.0
2026-11-02 Toronto Raptors 1452.2 -9.9
2026-11-01 Golden State Warriors 1462.1 -8.8
2026-10-30 Minnesota Timberwolves 1470.9 -10.2
2026-10-28 Los Angeles Lakers 1481.1 -

New Orleans Pelicans

1492.6 +22.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-06 Minnesota Timberwolves 1492.6 -10.1
2026-11-04 Utah Jazz 1502.7 +8.1
2026-11-02 Memphis Grizzlies 1494.6 +12.1
2026-10-31 Atlanta Hawks 1482.5 +12.5
2026-10-29 Sacramento Kings 1470.0 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Los Angeles Clippers

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Miami Heat 116 117 -1
Toronto Raptors 118 125 -7
Golden State Warriors 112 124 -12
Minnesota Timberwolves 101 127 -26
Los Angeles Lakers 87 103 -16

New Orleans Pelicans

4-1 in last 5
L W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Minnesota Timberwolves 109 115 -6
Utah Jazz 120 113 +7
Memphis Grizzlies 135 134 +1
Atlanta Hawks 121 99 +22
Sacramento Kings 132 120 +12

Game Analysis

The projected starting five is the largest separator in New Orleans’ favor, giving the Pelicans the clearest advantage in the model’s matchup assessment. Zion Williamson leads the listed Pelicans starters at 21 points per game, while Darius Garland gives the Clippers a similar scoring pace at 21. Recent form also points toward New Orleans: the Pelicans have won two of their last three, while the Clippers have dropped three straight. Los Angeles does have home-court advantage, and its narrow projected margin in the spread model suggests that this is not expected to be a comfortable Pelicans win.

Final Prediction

Garland matching Williamson’s scoring output could make the Clippers’ projected home-court edge matter more and give them a path to overturn the probability forecast.

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