Portland Trail Blazers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-10

Portland Trail Blazers

Home Team
63.6%
VS

Oklahoma City Thunder

Away Team
36.4%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Portland Trail Blazers

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 Portland Trail Blazers
Starting five +4.8 Portland Trail Blazers
Recent team form +4.0 Portland Trail Blazers
Season record & ratings +3.0 Oklahoma City Thunder
Home/road record +1.3 Oklahoma City Thunder

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Portland Trail Blazers. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Portland Trail Blazers
PTS 9.6 REB 10.1 AST 1.1 3PM 0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 17.7 REB 4.3 AST 4.0 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.6 REB 6.8 AST 5.2 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.2 REB 3.9 AST 1.3 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.6 REB 4.9 AST 1.1 3PM 2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Oklahoma City Thunder
PTS 10.5 REB 6.4 AST 2.1 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.1 REB 4.3 AST 3.6 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.7 REB 9.0 AST 3.6 3PM 0.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 8.7 REB 4.1 AST 1.6 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 28.5 REB 4.2 AST 5.2 3PM 2.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Donovan Clingan
OR
129.9
DR
109.3
PTS
11.9
VS
Aday Mara
OR
108.8
DR
104.1
PTS
8.1
SG
Damian Lillard
OR
121.7
DR
117.4
PTS
19.4
VS
Ajay Mitchell
OR
113.1
DR
106.3
PTS
18.9
SF
Deni Avdija
OR
118.6
DR
113.4
PTS
22.3
VS
Isaiah Hartenstein
OR
114.6
DR
99.0
PTS
6.9
PF
Scoot Henderson
OR
82.1
DR
117.6
PTS
8.4
VS
Kenrich Williams
OR
160.4
DR
110.2
PTS
6.8
C
Toumani Camara
OR
128.8
DR
116.4
PTS
13.1
VS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
OR
116.4
DR
108.2
PTS
29.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Portland is favored to win, with a 64% probability, a solid but not decisive lean. Its expected starters are Donovan Clingan, Damian Lillard, Deni Avdija, Scoot Henderson and Toumani Camara, while Oklahoma City is expected to start Aday Mara, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Hartenstein, Kenrich Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 226 points, pointing to a mid-220s scoring game. Portland is forecast to win by seven, a comfortable margin rather than a close finish.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 225.5 Most likely outcome: 225 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - Oklahoma City Thunder) 6.9 Most likely outcome: 6 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Oklahoma City's rating is rising sharply over the last five games, while Portland's has fallen slightly.

Portland Trail Blazers

1530.4 -2.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-07 San Antonio Spurs 1530.4 -12.6
2026-11-06 Los Angeles Lakers 1543.0 -10.0
2026-11-04 Phoenix Suns 1553.0 +9.2
2026-11-02 Denver Nuggets 1543.8 +10.5
2026-10-31 Utah Jazz 1533.3 -

Oklahoma City Thunder

1559.2 +43.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-07 Washington Wizards 1559.2 +10.5
2026-11-06 Memphis Grizzlies 1548.7 +13.2
2026-11-04 Cleveland Cavaliers 1535.5 +9.4
2026-11-02 Cleveland Cavaliers 1526.1 +10.8
2026-10-31 Houston Rockets 1515.3 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Portland Trail Blazers

3-2 in last 5
L L W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
San Antonio Spurs 103 125 -22
Los Angeles Lakers 118 124 -6
Phoenix Suns 132 119 +13
Denver Nuggets 118 110 +8
Utah Jazz 112 90 +22

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 in last 5
W W W W L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Washington Wizards 114 75 +39
Memphis Grizzlies 128 97 +31
Cleveland Cavaliers 124 116 +8
Cleveland Cavaliers 117 112 +5
Houston Rockets 98 119 -21

Game Analysis

The forecast leans most on Portland's home court and its expected starting group. The Blazers have several scoring options in that lineup, giving them a path to make the most of playing at home. Oklahoma City has the stronger recent results, winning three straight, including two by wide margins. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Thunder's leading scorer at about 30 points per game, and the season-level ratings and home-road record also favor Oklahoma City.

Final Prediction

If Gilgeous-Alexander's scoring carries over, Oklahoma City could offset Portland's home advantage and overturn the forecast. The seven-point projection leaves room for that outcome, but Portland's home floor remains its clearest advantage.

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