Utah Jazz vs Miami Heat Prediction
NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-10
Utah Jazz
Home Team
35.9%
VS
Miami Heat
Away Team
64.1%
Why the Model Favors Miami Heat
The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.
Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Miami Heat. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →
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Set it upPlayer Projections
AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.
HOME Utah Jazz
Ace Bailey
PTS
13.1
REB
6.6
AST
2.2
3PM
1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Darryn Peterson
PTS
16.1
REB
4.7
AST
4.0
3PM
2.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Isaiah Collier
PTS
10.0
REB
4.7
AST
4.1
3PM
0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Jaxson Hayes
PTS
10.2
REB
7.2
AST
2.2
3PM
0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Lauri Markkanen
PTS
18.9
REB
6.6
AST
2.4
3PM
3.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Miami Heat
Andrew Wiggins
PTS
8.1
REB
4.0
AST
1.6
3PM
1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Bam Adebayo
PTS
17.6
REB
8.7
AST
3.1
3PM
0.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Davion Mitchell
PTS
14.5
REB
3.6
AST
6.8
3PM
1.9
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Giannis Antetokounmpo
PTS
24.8
REB
12.6
AST
5.2
3PM
0.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Klay Thompson
PTS
14.1
REB
3.0
AST
2.0
3PM
3.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
Starting Five Matchup
PG
Ace Bailey
OR
97.2
DR
115.3
PTS
11.9
VS
Andrew Wiggins
OR
94.1
DR
119.6
PTS
8.3
SG
Darryn Peterson
OR
108.4
DR
116.1
PTS
14.8
VS
Bam Adebayo
OR
117.4
DR
112.7
PTS
18.5
SF
Isaiah Collier
OR
89.9
DR
117.3
PTS
6.2
VS
Davion Mitchell
OR
124.5
DR
120.2
PTS
16.2
PF
Jaxson Hayes
OR
123.7
DR
112.7
PTS
8.6
VS
Giannis Antetokounmpo
OR
116.5
DR
113.0
PTS
27.5
C
Lauri Markkanen
OR
111.4
DR
116.9
PTS
18.0
VS
Klay Thompson
OR
110.3
DR
121.9
PTS
14.7
OR = Offensive Rating ·
DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) ·
PTS = Avg Points Per Game
Key Prediction Insights
Miami is favored to win, with a 64% probability. Utah’s expected starters are Ace Bailey, Darryn Peterson, Isaiah Collier, Jaxson Hayes and Lauri Markkanen. Miami’s are Andrew Wiggins, Bam Adebayo, Davion Mitchell, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Klay Thompson.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected total is 229 points, with Utah favored by about one point, pointing to a close game around that score. The spread estimate favors Utah while the winner probability favors Miami because two separate models are used, one for winner probability and one for point spread, and both results are shown for transparency.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
228.6
Most likely outcome: 228 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Utah Jazz - Miami Heat)
0.8
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Download Probability Data
Full distributions as structured data (JSON or CSV)
ELO Rating Trends
Utah’s rating has been falling over its last five games, while Miami’s has been stable.
Utah Jazz
1425.5
-31.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1425.5 | -6.7 |
| 2026-11-06 | Dallas Mavericks | 1432.2 | -8.2 |
| 2026-11-04 | New Orleans Pelicans | 1440.4 | -8.1 |
| 2026-11-02 | San Antonio Spurs | 1448.5 | -8.7 |
| 2026-10-31 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1457.2 | - |
Miami Heat
1482.0
+0.7 over 5 games
| Date | Opponent | ELO | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-08 | Sacramento Kings | 1482.0 | +9.4 |
| 2026-11-05 | Golden State Warriors | 1472.6 | -9.1 |
| 2026-11-04 | Los Angeles Clippers | 1481.7 | +10.0 |
| 2026-11-02 | Los Angeles Lakers | 1471.7 | -9.6 |
| 2026-10-30 | Indiana Pacers | 1481.3 | - |
NBA ELO Power Rankings
Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.
View Full ELO StandingsRecent Form: Last 5 Games
Utah Jazz
0-5 in last 5
L
L
L
L
L
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 100 | 115 | -15 | |
| Dallas Mavericks | 100 | 112 | -12 | |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 113 | 120 | -7 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 97 | 119 | -22 | |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 90 | 112 | -22 |
Miami Heat
3-2 in last 5
W
L
W
L
W
| Opponent | PF | PA | Diff | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento Kings | 114 | 108 | +6 | |
| Golden State Warriors | 100 | 120 | -20 | |
| Los Angeles Clippers | 117 | 116 | +1 | |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 117 | 138 | -21 | |
| Indiana Pacers | 145 | 125 | +20 |
Game Analysis
Miami’s expected starting five is the strongest separator in the win forecast, particularly with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo in the lineup. Giannis leads the listed starters in average scoring, giving Miami a clear source of points. Utah’s home-court advantage pushes the other way, but its lineup advantage is smaller in the model’s assessment.
Recent form also favors Miami: it has won two of its past three, while Utah has lost three straight. The Jazz have scored 100 points in each of their last two games, while Miami’s rating has held steady across five games. That contrast supports the forecast, though Miami’s recent loss by 20 shows its results have not been uniformly strong.
Final Prediction
Utah can upset the forecast if Lauri Markkanen’s scoring helps the Jazz make the most of home court. A strong night from him would give the slight Utah spread projection a plausible path to matching the winner result.
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