Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-11

Houston Rockets

Home Team
39.8%
VS

Golden State Warriors

Away Team
60.2%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Golden State Warriors

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +15.6 Golden State Warriors
Home-court advantage +7.6 Houston Rockets
Recent team form +3.8 Golden State Warriors

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 60% for Golden State Warriors. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Houston Rockets
PTS 19.8 REB 8.8 AST 6.3 3PM 1.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 14.2 REB 6.7 AST 2.1 3PM 0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.9 REB 3.5 AST 3.8 3PM 2.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 15.0 REB 6.3 AST 2.1 3PM 2.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.1 REB 6.5 AST 3.7 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Golden State Warriors
PTS 15.1 REB 5.2 AST 2.9 3PM 2.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 4.7 REB 5.1 AST 6.0 3PM 0.2
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 5.1 REB 4.1 AST 1.1 3PM 0.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 26.7 REB 4.8 AST 3.9 3PM 3.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.5 REB 6.7 AST 3.6 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Alperen Şengün
OR
122.8
DR
108.2
PTS
21.3
VS
Brandin Podziemski
OR
129.9
DR
109.6
PTS
16.8
SG
Amen Thompson
OR
119.5
DR
111.5
PTS
14.9
VS
Draymond Green
OR
105.2
DR
108.7
PTS
2.8
SF
Fred VanVleet
OR
124.3
DR
111.8
PTS
13.2
VS
Gui Santos
OR
119.2
DR
114.2
PTS
6.1
PF
Jabari Smith Jr.
OR
133.9
DR
111.2
PTS
17.0
VS
Stephen Curry
OR
145.2
DR
111.1
PTS
30.6
C
Kevin Durant
OR
119.9
DR
109.6
PTS
21.0
VS
Yaxel Lendeborg
OR
118.4
DR
112.6
PTS
21.4
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Golden State is favored, with a 60% win chance, though Houston’s home floor makes this a competitive call. Houston is expected to start Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson, Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith Jr. and Kevin Durant, while Golden State’s five is Brandin Podziemski, Draymond Green, Gui Santos, Stephen Curry and Yaxel Lendeborg.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projection is 226 combined points and a 0-point margin after rounding, pointing to a close game. The separate winner-probability model favors Golden State, while a separate spread model gives Houston a fraction-of-a-point edge, and both results are shown for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 225.5 Most likely outcome: 225 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Houston Rockets - Golden State Warriors) 0.5
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Houston’s rating has slipped slightly over its last five games, while Golden State’s has climbed sharply.

Houston Rockets

1548.2 -4.5 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-09 Denver Nuggets 1548.2 +9.4
2026-11-07 Phoenix Suns 1538.8 -11.3
2026-11-04 Minnesota Timberwolves 1550.1 -12.3
2026-11-02 Boston Celtics 1562.4 +9.7
2026-10-31 Oklahoma City Thunder 1552.7 -

Golden State Warriors

1551.4 +36.1 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-09 New Orleans Pelicans 1551.4 +11.1
2026-11-07 Orlando Magic 1540.3 +7.3
2026-11-05 Miami Heat 1533.0 +9.1
2026-11-02 Phoenix Suns 1523.9 +8.6
2026-11-01 Los Angeles Clippers 1515.3 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Houston Rockets

3-2 in last 5
W L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Denver Nuggets 110 100 +10
Phoenix Suns 99 102 -3
Minnesota Timberwolves 107 117 -10
Boston Celtics 109 93 +16
Oklahoma City Thunder 119 98 +21

Golden State Warriors

5-0 in last 5
W W W W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
New Orleans Pelicans 138 87 +51
Orlando Magic 126 119 +7
Miami Heat 120 100 +20
Phoenix Suns 116 113 +3
Los Angeles Clippers 124 112 +12

Game Analysis

The starting groups are the clearest separation in the forecast, with Curry’s scoring making him the most productive starter at 31 points per game. Houston counters with a balanced group: all five expected starters average at least 13 points, and home court is another advantage. Golden State’s three straight wins, capped by a 51-point rout of New Orleans, support its recent-form advantage. Houston did beat Denver in its latest outing, but its two earlier losses leave it with less momentum.

Final Prediction

Houston’s depth could flip the forecast if its five starters’ scoring balance offsets Golden State’s advantage from Curry’s high output.

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