New Orleans Pelicans vs Brooklyn Nets Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-11

New Orleans Pelicans

Home Team
67.9%
VS

Brooklyn Nets

Away Team
32.1%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors New Orleans Pelicans

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Home-court advantage +7.6 New Orleans Pelicans
Starting five +5.2 New Orleans Pelicans
Recent team form +4.3 New Orleans Pelicans
Season record & ratings +4.2 New Orleans Pelicans
Rest & schedule +1.2 Brooklyn Nets

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 68% for New Orleans Pelicans. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME New Orleans Pelicans
PTS 14.0 REB 5.0 AST 3.9 3PM 1.1
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.5 REB 4.9 AST 4.7 3PM 1.4
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.1 REB 5.2 AST 1.7 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.8 REB 4.7 AST 2.9 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.5 REB 6.5 AST 3.1 3PM 0.3
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Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Brooklyn Nets
PTS 8.8 REB 7.4 AST 3.8 3PM 0.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 6.3 REB 3.3 AST 1.2 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 19.6 REB 6.7 AST 4.3 3PM 1.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 20.2 REB 7.5 AST 1.6 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 12.7 REB 3.8 AST 2.5 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
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Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Dejounte Murray
OR
104.8
DR
121.5
PTS
14.5
VS
Day'Ron Sharpe
OR
113.0
DR
113.3
PTS
7.5
SG
Jeremiah Fears
OR
100.4
DR
119.8
PTS
15.4
VS
Egor Dëmin
OR
86.5
DR
118.5
PTS
7.8
SF
Karlo Matković
OR
119.1
DR
115.9
PTS
9.0
VS
Julius Randle
OR
107.5
DR
117.0
PTS
20.0
PF
Saddiq Bey
OR
120.4
DR
121.5
PTS
15.5
VS
Michael Porter Jr.
OR
110.9
DR
112.7
PTS
21.5
C
Zion Williamson
OR
131.9
DR
114.5
PTS
21.0
VS
Nolan Traoré
OR
111.5
DR
114.8
PTS
12.9
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

The model favors New Orleans at 68%, a meaningful advantage but not a certainty. The expected starters are Dejounte Murray, Jeremiah Fears, Karlo Matković, Saddiq Bey and Zion Williamson for the Pelicans, and Day'Ron Sharpe, Egor Dëmin, Julius Randle, Michael Porter Jr. and Nolan Traoré for Brooklyn.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

A projected 230 points suggests a fairly high-scoring game. New Orleans is expected to win by about eight, a comfortable margin if the forecast holds.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 230.3 Most likely outcome: 230 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (New Orleans Pelicans - Brooklyn Nets) 8.3 Most likely outcome: 8 points
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ power ratings are falling over the last five games, with New Orleans slipping faster than Brooklyn.

New Orleans Pelicans

1469.9 -24.7 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-09 Golden State Warriors 1469.9 -11.0
2026-11-08 Los Angeles Clippers 1480.9 -11.7
2026-11-06 Minnesota Timberwolves 1492.6 -10.1
2026-11-04 Utah Jazz 1502.7 +8.1
2026-11-02 Memphis Grizzlies 1494.6 -

Brooklyn Nets

1444.9 -16.6 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-08 Dallas Mavericks 1444.9 -10.1
2026-11-07 Atlanta Hawks 1455.0 -7.7
2026-11-04 Charlotte Hornets 1462.7 +10.5
2026-11-02 New York Knicks 1452.2 -9.3
2026-11-01 Indiana Pacers 1461.5 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

New Orleans Pelicans

2-3 in last 5
L L L W W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Golden State Warriors 87 138 -51
Los Angeles Clippers 123 139 -16
Minnesota Timberwolves 109 115 -6
Utah Jazz 120 113 +7
Memphis Grizzlies 135 134 +1

Brooklyn Nets

2-3 in last 5
L L W L W
Opponent PF PA Diff
Dallas Mavericks 93 130 -37
Atlanta Hawks 121 124 -3
Charlotte Hornets 114 104 +10
New York Knicks 90 103 -13
Indiana Pacers 98 90 +8

Game Analysis

Home court is the strongest factor in New Orleans’ favor, and the projected starting groups also tilt the forecast toward the Pelicans. Zion Williamson is listed at 21 points per game, while Michael Porter Jr. gives Brooklyn a scoring threat at 22. The broader season rating profile also supports New Orleans. Neither side arrives in convincing form. The Pelicans have lost three straight, including two heavy defeats, while Brooklyn has dropped two of its last three. That recent stretch makes the home advantage and New Orleans’ stronger season profile especially important to the forecast.

Final Prediction

Brooklyn’s clearest route to an upset is Porter Jr. turning his scoring into a sustained advantage against a Pelicans lineup with some vulnerable defensive numbers. If New Orleans limits that threat, its home-court and starting-five advantages give it a strong path to the predicted win.

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