Utah Jazz vs Orlando Magic Prediction

NBA 2026-2027 · 2026-11-11

Utah Jazz

Home Team
46.4%
VS

Orlando Magic

Away Team
53.6%
2026-2027 Season

Why the Model Favors Orlando Magic

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Starting five +9.8 Orlando Magic
Home-court advantage +7.6 Utah Jazz
Season record & ratings +2.2 Orlando Magic
Recent team form +1.0 Orlando Magic

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 54% for Orlando Magic. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Player Projections

AI-powered statistical projections for tonight's starters. Click a player to view their full probability distributions.

HOME Utah Jazz
PTS 13.5 REB 6.0 AST 2.0 3PM 1.8
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.5 REB 4.3 AST 3.8 3PM 2.3
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 10.2 REB 4.5 AST 3.9 3PM 0.5
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.2 REB 6.1 AST 1.8 3PM 0.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 18.6 REB 6.2 AST 2.2 3PM 3.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
AWAY Orlando Magic
PTS 12.3 REB 9.1 AST 1.5 3PM 1.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.9 REB 6.4 AST 4.3 3PM 1.7
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 16.3 REB 4.2 AST 2.0 3PM 3.0
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 21.7 REB 6.0 AST 7.5 3PM 1.6
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
PTS 9.4 REB 4.4 AST 1.3 3PM 1.4
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Points > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Rebounds > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(Assists > X)
Distribution (PDF)
Cumulative Probability: P(3-Pointers Made > X)
View All Player Projections

Starting Five Matchup

PG
Ace Bailey
OR
100.0
DR
115.3
PTS
12.9
VS
Wendell Carter Jr.
OR
125.5
DR
112.5
PTS
14.1
SG
Darryn Peterson
OR
107.8
DR
115.9
PTS
15.7
VS
Anthony Black
OR
120.6
DR
110.9
PTS
17.1
SF
Isaiah Collier
OR
93.0
DR
116.7
PTS
7.2
VS
Desmond Bane
OR
97.2
DR
117.2
PTS
17.2
PF
Jaxson Hayes
OR
122.1
DR
112.3
PTS
8.3
VS
Franz Wagner
OR
106.2
DR
115.5
PTS
22.0
C
Lauri Markkanen
OR
111.4
DR
116.9
PTS
18.0
VS
Jamal Cain
OR
97.8
DR
119.0
PTS
7.0
OR = Offensive Rating · DR = Defensive Rating (lower is better) · PTS = Avg Points Per Game

Key Prediction Insights

Orlando is favored, but only narrowly, with a 54% chance to win. Utah’s expected starters are Ace Bailey, Darryn Peterson, Isaiah Collier, Jaxson Hayes and Lauri Markkanen, while Orlando is projected to start Wendell Carter Jr., Anthony Black, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner and Jamal Cain.

Total Points and Spread Analysis

The projected total is 218 points, and the predicted margin is about one point, suggesting a close game with a modest scoring total. That margin estimate favors home side Utah, unlike the winner forecast, because separate models are used for win probability and point spread, and both results are shown for transparency.

🏀 Total Points Predictions

🏀
Expected Total Points in Game 217.5 Most likely outcome: 217 points
📊 Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each total points outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total points ≤ X

📈 Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Spread (Utah Jazz - Orlando Magic) 0.8
📊 Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution

Probability of each spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

ELO Rating Trends

Both teams’ ratings are falling over the last five games, with Utah declining more sharply and Orlando’s rating ticking up in its latest update.

Utah Jazz

1416.6 -31.9 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-10 Miami Heat 1416.6 -8.9
2026-11-08 Minnesota Timberwolves 1425.5 -6.7
2026-11-06 Dallas Mavericks 1432.2 -8.2
2026-11-04 New Orleans Pelicans 1440.4 -8.1
2026-11-02 San Antonio Spurs 1448.5 -

Orlando Magic

1460.6 -18.2 over 5 games
Date Opponent ELO Change
2026-11-10 Sacramento Kings 1460.6 +10.3
2026-11-07 Golden State Warriors 1450.3 -7.3
2026-11-05 Phoenix Suns 1457.6 -11.1
2026-11-02 Washington Wizards 1468.7 -10.1
2026-11-01 Boston Celtics 1478.8 -

NBA ELO Power Rankings

Curious how these teams stack up league-wide? Check the full ELO standings, progression charts, and conference breakdowns.

View Full ELO Standings

Recent Form: Last 5 Games

Utah Jazz

0-5 in last 5
L L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Miami Heat 109 115 -6
Minnesota Timberwolves 100 115 -15
Dallas Mavericks 100 112 -12
New Orleans Pelicans 113 120 -7
San Antonio Spurs 97 119 -22

Orlando Magic

1-4 in last 5
W L L L L
Opponent PF PA Diff
Sacramento Kings 107 100 +7
Golden State Warriors 119 126 -7
Phoenix Suns 104 117 -13
Washington Wizards 94 103 -9
Boston Celtics 97 108 -11

Game Analysis

Orlando’s projected starting group is the clearest separator in the winner forecast, while Utah’s home-court advantage pulls the other way. Franz Wagner is the strongest listed scoring threat among the starters at an average of 22 points, with Lauri Markkanen leading Utah at 18. Utah has lost three straight, while Orlando snapped a two-game skid with its latest win over Sacramento. That recent result gives the Magic a little momentum, though neither team’s five-game rating trend is positive.

Final Prediction

Utah’s home setting and Markkanen’s scoring could make the margin estimate a better guide than the narrow Orlando win forecast if the Jazz can keep pace with the Magic’s stronger projected starting group.

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