Orlando Magic
Eastern Conference · ELO profile, season simulation & model record
Season ELO trajectory
One point per game day: the team's ELO rating after that day's result, including playoffs. NBA ratings are season-scoped in our engine (every team re-seeds at 1500 each October, then the rating updates after every game), so trajectories are shown one season at a time and seasons are compared through their peak and final values in the table below. Hover a point for the date and the team's league-wide ELO position.
How predictable are the Orlando Magic?
In line with the league 2025-26 · 82 predicted games
We grade every game forecast like a weather forecast: say 70% and it happens, good grade; say 70% and it does not, bad grade, with bigger penalties the more confident we were. Averaged over the season, the Orlando Magic were 1.9% harder to call than the NBA average. How this is measured.
| Season | Games | Winner acc | NBA avg | Confident calls (≥65%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 82 | 69.5% | 67.4% | 82.1% (NBA 80.1%) |
| 2024-25 | 80 | 68.8% | 67.3% | 69.2% (NBA 75.5%) |
Share of predicted games our published game-day prediction called correctly, next to the league-wide average of the same season. In 2025-26 the Orlando Magic won 3 games as a clear underdog (we gave them under 35%) and lost 2 as a clear favorite (65% or more).
Season by season
| Season | GP | Pos | Start | Peak | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 89 | #13 | 1509 | 1572 | 1547 |
| 2024-25 | 87 | #17 | 1512 | 1578 | 1492 |
| 2023-24 | 89 | #16 | 1512 | 1579 | 1522 |
| 2022-23 | 82 | #21 | 1491 | 1493 | 1459 |
| 2021-22 | 82 | #26 | 1488 | 1488 | 1359 |
| 2020-21 | 72 | #28 | 1510 | 1541 | 1326 |
| 2019-20 | 78 | #21 | 1510 | 1514 | 1470 |
| 2018-19 | 87 | #13 | 1509 | 1570 | 1534 |
| 2017-18 | 82 | #28 | 1510 | 1545 | 1346 |
| 2016-17 | 82 | #27 | 1488 | 1499 | 1374 |
| 2015-16 | 82 | #20 | 1489 | 1548 | 1443 |
| 2014-15 | 82 | #26 | 1489 | 1491 | 1345 |
| 2013-14 | 82 | #27 | 1490 | 1514 | 1338 |
| 2012-13 | 82 | #30 | 1510 | 1521 | 1285 |
| 2011-12 | 71 | #19 | 1490 | 1587 | 1479 |
| 2010-11 | 88 | #11 | 1512 | 1607 | 1563 |
| 2009-10 | 96 | #1 | 1510 | 1732 | 1698 |
| 2008-09 | 106 | #3 | 1488 | 1684 | 1658 |
| 2007-08 | 92 | #9 | 1511 | 1607 | 1580 |
| 2006-07 | 86 | #17 | 1511 | 1579 | 1466 |
| 2005-06 | 82 | #15 | 1488 | 1516 | 1495 |
| 2004-05 | 82 | #23 | 1509 | 1554 | 1401 |
| 2003-04 | 82 | #29 | 1511 | 1511 | 1322 |
| 2002-03 | 89 | #17 | 1510 | 1541 | 1488 |
| 2001-02 | 86 | #16 | 1512 | 1550 | 1494 |
| 2000-01 | 86 | #17 | 1510 | 1559 | 1505 |
| 1999-00 | 82 | #15 | 1490 | 1541 | 1509 |
| 1998-99 | 54 | #10 | 1510 | 1620 | 1547 |
| 1997-98 | 82 | #16 | 1489 | 1564 | 1507 |
| 1996-97 | 87 | #13 | 1489 | 1593 | 1550 |
GP counts every game in the corpus including playoffs. Pos is the team's league-wide ELO rank at the last computed game day of that season. Start, Peak and End are ELO values within the season (each season re-seeds at 1500).
Covered players: projection predictability
| Player | Pos | Starts | Predictability score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Black | PG | 39 | 7.2 |
| Paolo Banchero | PF | 72 | 5.8 |
| Tristan Da Silva | SF | 34 | 4.5 |
| Jalen Suggs | PG | 58 | 2.9 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. | C | 78 | 2.9 |
| Desmond Bane | SG | 82 | 2.4 |
| Franz Wagner | SF | 29 | 0.4 |
Every Orlando Magic player with a predictability profile: started games only, 20-start minimum. The score measures how well our projections call the player's points and rebounds against a naive rolling average (higher is more predictable). Players without projection coverage are not listed.
Recent games: model vs reality
| Date | Opponent | Model said | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 03, 2026 | at Detroit Pistons | L Orlando Magic 19.7% | L 94-116 ✓ |
| May 01, 2026 | vs Detroit Pistons | L Orlando Magic 33.1% | L 79-93 ✓ |
| Apr 29, 2026 | at Detroit Pistons | L Orlando Magic 29.4% | L 109-116 ✓ |
| Apr 27, 2026 | vs Detroit Pistons | L Orlando Magic 48.3% | W 94-88 ✗ |
| Apr 25, 2026 | vs Detroit Pistons | L Orlando Magic 45.5% | W 113-105 ✗ |
| Apr 22, 2026 | at Detroit Pistons | L Orlando Magic 17.3% | L 83-98 ✓ |
| Apr 19, 2026 | at Detroit Pistons | L Orlando Magic 19.1% | W 112-101 ✗ |
| Apr 12, 2026 | at Boston Celtics | W Orlando Magic 72.6% | L 108-113 ✗ |
| Apr 10, 2026 | at Chicago Bulls | W Orlando Magic 60.4% | W 127-103 ✓ |
| Apr 08, 2026 | vs Minnesota Timberwolves | W Orlando Magic 57.9% | W 132-120 ✓ |
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