Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 64

Adam Walton vs Jesper de Jong: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Adam Walton

Rank: #98
51%
VS

Jesper de Jong

Rank: #106
49%
Expected Total Games: 26.4
Predicted Winner: Adam Walton

Why the Model Favors Adam Walton

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +3.7 Adam Walton
Recent form +3.1 Jesper de Jong
Surface fit +1.9 Adam Walton
Overall strength +1.0 Adam Walton
Age +0.8 Jesper de Jong

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 51% for Adam Walton. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Adam Walton

  • Current #98 2026-08-10
  • 3 mo ago #97 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #87 2026-02-23
  • 9 mo ago #78 2025-11-24
  • 12 mo ago #85 2025-08-25

Jesper de Jong

  • Current #106 2026-08-10
  • 3 mo ago #106 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #89 2026-02-23
  • 9 mo ago #76 2025-11-24
  • 12 mo ago #83 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Adam Walton

Form Index: 40.6
ELO Rating: 1626.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1627.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.3
Clay: 16.7
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 88.2

Jesper de Jong

Form Index: 35.0
ELO Rating: 1625.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1566.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.9
Clay: 22.4
Grass: 9.0
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 86.1

Recent Matches

Adam Walton
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jaime Faria (1-2) hard Cincinnati 131 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ignacio Buse (2-0) hard Cincinnati 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolas Mejia (2-0) hard Cincinnati 108 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jenson Brooksby (0-2) hard Toronto 88 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Justin Boulais (2-0) hard Toronto 120 min

Jesper de Jong
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Adam Walton
vs
0
Jesper de Jong
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Winston-Salem, North Carolina hosts a hard court first round matchup in the 250 event between Adam Walton and Jesper de Jong. The model gives Walton the narrow edge, 51.19% to 48.81% for de Jong, with a projected total of about 26.41 games in the match. This is expected to be a compact contest on a medium paced hard court.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Walton comes mainly from serve and return performance, supported by a better surface fit and slight overall strength advantage. Walton is ranked 98, with an Elo of 1626.84 and a form index of 40.60. His surface strength index on hard is 21.28, and his mean serve index is 96.53. He also posts a strong mean return index of 88.25. Fatigue is zero for Walton coming into the match. De Jong is a close opponent by the numbers, ranked 106 with Elo 1625.65 and a form index of 35.04. His surface strength index is lower at 15.87. De Jong has a mean serve index of 95.05 and a mean return index of 86.15, with no tournament fatigue reported. Recent form pulls slightly toward de Jong according to the explainability output. Walton comes in with two wins followed by a three set loss in Cincinnati, showing competitive hard court play over his last three matches. De Jong enters on a rough streak, with three straight losses across hard and clay events, including a straight sets defeat in Cincinnati. Those results help explain the narrow margin in probability despite Walton’s modest statistical advantages in surface fit and return metrics.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.4 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Adam Walton - Jesper de Jong) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Jesper de Jong wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 15.03 total, with predicted aces split 6.64 for Walton and 9.01 for de Jong. The expected double faults total is 6.66, split 2.72 for Walton and 3.97 for de Jong. On a medium paced hard court, predicted aces are moderate, reflecting a balance between power serving and return depth. Although serve indices are similar, the per player ace projections show de Jong with more expected aces (9.01) than Walton (6.64), while Walton is projected to make fewer double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.0 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Adam Walton 6.6 + Jesper de Jong 9.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 5 double faults Per player: Adam Walton 2.7 + Jesper de Jong 4.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Adam Walton

Expected 6.6 aces

Jesper de Jong

Expected 9.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Adam Walton

Expected 2.7 double faults

Jesper de Jong

Expected 4.0 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Adam Walton's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (28.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Walton’s projected advantage rests chiefly on the serve and return game and a better surface fit, which marginally outweighs de Jong’s recent form and slight age advantage. Watch Walton’s return efficiency early. If he can neutralize de Jong’s service free points, Walton should be favored to close this tight opener.

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