Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Nicolas Mejia: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s slight tilt toward Mejia is driven chiefly by surface fit and recent results at this level: surface fit contributes +6.1 points for Mejia, and recent record by level adds another +3.9 in his favor. Mejia’s grass-specific resume at this tournament — three straight wins in the lead-up — underpins that advantage. Vallejo’s counterweights in the model come from his superior serve-and-return profile (+4.3 toward Vallejo), overall strength (+3.1) and an age-related edge (+2.5). Looking at the numbers: Vallejo is the higher-ranked player (No. 72) with an Elo of 1621 and a form index of 39.9. He arrives with zero minutes of fatigue in this event, a mean serve index of 95.13 and an outstanding mean return index of 96.05. Mejia sits at No. 165 with Elo 1589, a stronger recent form index (58.9), but substantial tournament fatigue (522 minutes). His surface strength index on grass (17.40) is noticeably better than Vallejo’s (7.03), which amplifies the model’s surface-fit advantage. The difference in mean return index (>5 points) favors Vallejo and is a meaningful tactical factor; the serve indices are very close and not meaningfully different. Recent form: Vallejo is 1–2 across his last three matches (beat Cameron Norrie, then losses at Roland Garros and Mallorca), while Mejia is 3–0 at Wimbledon, including straight-set wins in his last two rounds.