Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Adrian Mannarino vs Aleksandar Vukic Prediction

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #83
51%
VS

Aleksandar Vukic

Rank: #115
49%
Expected Total Games: 24.1
Predicted Winner: Adrian Mannarino

Why the Model Favors Adrian Mannarino

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall record & opposition quality +3.0 Aleksandar Vukic
Serve & return game +2.9 Adrian Mannarino
Overall strength +2.4 Adrian Mannarino
Age +1.7 Aleksandar Vukic
Recent form +1.3 Adrian Mannarino

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 51% for Adrian Mannarino. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Adrian Mannarino

  • Current #83 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #46 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #46 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #69 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #58 2025-10-20

Aleksandar Vukic

  • Current #115 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #102 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #89 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #78 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #100 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 43.5
ELO Rating: 1643.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1621.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.8
Clay: 0.0
Grass: 22.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 89.4

Aleksandar Vukic

Form Index: 33.0
ELO Rating: 1477.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1519.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.2
Clay: 3.1
Grass: 11.4
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 84.1

Recent Matches

Adrian Mannarino
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Aleksandar Vukic
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Pavel Kotov (0-2) hard Shanghai 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jie Cui (2-1) hard Shanghai 202 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Kyrian Jacquet (1-2) hard Hangzhou 166 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Rei Sakamoto (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Mark Lajal (1-2) hard Cincinnati 147 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Adrian Mannarino
vs
0
Aleksandar Vukic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Mannarino is a narrow choice in Almaty’s Round of 32, with the forecast at 51% for him and 49% for Vukic. It points to 24.2 total games, suggesting a close contest likely to turn on small margins.

Match Analysis

Vukic’s broader record against opposition is the strongest counterweight, and the age factor also tilts his way. Mannarino, however, has the stronger general player profile and a clear advantage in return quality, giving him more ways to pressure Vukic’s service games. Mannarino has won two of his last three hard-court matches, including a win over Flavio Cobolli, while Vukic has won one in that span. Their serving strength is closely matched, so Mannarino’s stronger return and hard-court profile help explain the slight lean his way.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Adrian Mannarino - Aleksandar Vukic) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Vukic is projected for 9.3 aces and 2.6 double faults, against Mannarino’s 5.8 aces and 2.0 double faults. Vukic’s projected ace advantage offers a route to more free points, though Mannarino’s return strength could make those service gains harder to sustain.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.6 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Adrian Mannarino 5.8 + Aleksandar Vukic 9.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Adrian Mannarino 2.0 + Aleksandar Vukic 2.6

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 5.8 aces

Aleksandar Vukic

Expected 9.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 2.0 double faults

Aleksandar Vukic

Expected 2.6 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Adrian Mannarino's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (38.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

If Vukic’s serve delivers the projected ace gap, he can offset Mannarino’s return advantage and turn the narrow forecast against him.

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