Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Adrian Mannarino vs Rinky Hijikata: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #68
37%
VS

Rinky Hijikata

Rank: #111
63%
Expected Total Games: 37.4
Predicted Winner: Rinky Hijikata

Player Metrics

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 8.2
ELO Rating: 777.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1567.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 4.7
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 66.9
Return Rating: 72.3

Rinky Hijikata

Form Index: 42.2
ELO Rating: 605.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1573.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.0
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 11.2
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 94.9

Recent Matches

Adrian Mannarino

  • Last Match: vs Eliot Spizzirri (0-2) hard Auckland 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Marin Cilic (0-2) hard Hong Kong 84 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Arthur Cazaux (0-2) hard Metz 107 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Yannick Hanfmann (0-2) hard Paris 71 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) hard Shanghai 143 min

Rinky Hijikata

  • Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Adelaide 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tristan Schoolkate (2-0) hard Adelaide 79 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (1-2) hard Brisbane 133 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Brisbane 72 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Filip Misolic (2-0) hard Brisbane 93 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Adrian Mannarino
vs
1
Rinky Hijikata
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Adrian Mannarino and Rinky Hijikata at the Australian Open marks an exciting encounter in the Round of 128 on hard court. With Rinky Hijikata favored to win, the probability of victory stands at 63.20%, while Adrian Mannarino has a 36.80% chance. Fans can expect a competitive match, with an estimated total of 37.42 games to be played.

Match Analysis

Adrian Mannarino, currently ranked 68, has a form index of 8.22 and an Elo rating of 777.79. His surface strength index of 6.92 suggests he has struggled to adapt to hard courts recently. In contrast, Rinky Hijikata, ranked 111, boasts a higher form index of 42.17 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 605.72. Notably, Hijikata's surface strength index of 14.96 and mean serve index of 97.66 demonstrate his proficiency on hard courts, with a difference of over 5 points in serve index compared to Mannarino. Additionally, Hijikata's mean return index of 94.88 is stronger than Mannarino's 72.26, indicating a solid baseline game that could pressure Mannarino's serve throughout the match. In their recent performances, Mannarino has struggled, losing his last three matches, all in straight sets. His last match against Eliot Spizzirri in Auckland lasted 80 minutes, culminating in a disappointing outing where he won no sets. On the other hand, Hijikata has had mixed results, winning one of his last three matches. His most recent match against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was a close encounter that he lost, but he did win against Tristan Schoolkate, showcasing his ability to compete at a higher level on hard courts.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.4 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces prediction for this match is 17.79, reflecting the hard court's balance between powerful serving and strong returning. With Hijikata's superior serve index, he is likely to dominate the ace count. The expected double faults prediction stands at 4.57, which is relatively moderate, but both players will need to manage their service games effectively on this medium-paced surface to avoid unnecessary errors.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.8 Most likely: 17 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Rinky Hijikata holds the edge in this matchup due to his stronger serve and return statistics, coupled with a better recent form compared to Mannarino. A key factor to monitor will be Hijikata's ability to capitalize on his serve, as this could significantly influence the match's dynamics and his chances of advancing.

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