Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Marton Fucsovics: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Davidovich Fokina comes mainly from overall strength (adding ~9.2 percentage points) and a better serve & return profile (about +6.3 points), with age (+3.9), recent form (+3.7) and quality of past opposition (+2.7) also contributing. Those factors show up in the raw numbers: Davidovich is ranked 23 with an Elo of 1805.5 and a form index of 65.2, while Fucsovics sits at 76 with Elo 1639.1 and a form index of 43.2. Both players report identical accumulated fatigue at 348 minutes on court, so fresh legs are an even split entering this tie. Surface suitability favors Davidovich as well—his surface strength index on grass is 34.5 versus Fucsovics’ 22.5—reflecting a clearer aptitude for the quick, low-bounce conditions. The mean serve indexes are very close (Davidovich 96.7, Fucsovics 95.7), so there’s no major serve advantage, but Davidovich’s mean return index (95.0) exceeds Fucsovics’ (88.1) by over five points, suggesting he will be more effective in neutralizing serve-dominated points on grass. Over the last three matches, Davidovich is unbeaten (wins in Mallorca and two long Wimbledon matches), while Fucsovics has two recent Wimbledon wins but a loss in London prior to the grass swing.