Indian Wells CA, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Zachary Svajda: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Rank: #14
66%
VS

Zachary Svajda

Rank: #98
34%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

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Ranking Trends

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

  • Current #14 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #14 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #18 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #29 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #39 2025-03-03

Zachary Svajda

  • Current #98 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #143 2025-12-01
  • 6 mo ago #145 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #228 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #187 2025-03-03

Player Metrics

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Form Index: 46.9
ELO Rating: 2040.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1587.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.9
Clay: 19.2
Grass: 21.7
Serve Rating: 68.8
Return Rating: 52.6

Zachary Svajda

Form Index: 55.0
ELO Rating: 577.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1557.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 106.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.1
Clay: 3.8
Grass: 3.7
Serve Rating: 96.4
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Zachary Svajda
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marin Cilic (2-0) hard Indian Wells 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Sho Shimabukuro (0-1) hard Acapulco 16 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Andres Martin (1-0) hard Acapulco 44 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (1-2) hard Delray Beach 141 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-0) hard Delray Beach 88 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
vs
0
Zachary Svajda
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Indian Wells in California, round of 64 action on hard courts sets up Alejandro Davidovich Fokina against Zachary Svajda in a Masters 1000 event. The model favors Davidovich Fokina to win (65.67% probability) over Svajda (34.33%), with an expected total of about 22.99 games in the match, suggesting a straight-sets affair with relatively few service breaks.

Match Analysis

Davidovich Fokina arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 14) and carries a substantially higher Elo (2040.85) than Svajda (577.13). His form index sits at 46.9 and his surface strength index on hard courts is modestly better (10.87) than Svajda’s (6.13). He has no accumulated fatigue in this tournament. Svajda, ranked 98, posts a stronger short-term form index (54.98) but shows 106 minutes of court time already in Indian Wells, which could matter later in long rallies. There are large gaps in the serve and return metrics: Svajda’s mean serve index (96.37) exceeds Davidovich Fokina’s (68.82) by more than 5 points, and Svajda’s mean return index (90.21) is likewise much higher than Davidovich Fokina’s (52.58). Over the last three matches Davidovich Fokina is 1-2, with a recent loss to Mattia Bellucci but a win over Daniel Altmaier; match lengths included a 117-minute contest versus Denis Shapovalov. Svajda is also 2-1 in the listed results, highlighted by a 106-minute win over Marin Cilic at Indian Wells, bookended by shorter matches earlier in the swing.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.0 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Zachary Svajda) +6.5 Most likely spread: +8 (Alejandro Davidovich Fokina wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this meeting is moderate: the model gives predicted aces of roughly 8.89 for the match. Expected double faults are about 6.37. Hard courts at Indian Wells are medium-paced with a consistent bounce, typically producing a balanced number of aces; here Svajda’s significantly higher serve rating should lift the ace count, while Davidovich Fokina’s lower serve index tempers it. This expected double faults figure reflects both players’ serving tendencies across recent data.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Davidovich Fokina’s higher ranking and much stronger Elo underpin his edge, while Svajda’s booming serve and impressive return numbers make him a dangerous, if less likely, upset threat. The key factor to watch will be how Svajda’s serve holds up against Davidovich Fokina’s return game — that matchup should determine momentum and the number of service breaks.

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