Alejandro Tabilo vs Ben Shelton: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Shelton comes mainly from recent record by level and overall strength, with serve & return balance also nudging the prediction his way. Shelton carries a higher Elo (1765.7 vs 1635.1) and a top-10 ranking (8 vs 30), which underpin the “overall strength” advantage. His surface strength index (39.44) is ahead of Tabilo’s (28.65), reinforcing the model’s preference on hard courts. Recent record by level favors Shelton too: he’s battled through longer, tougher matches in Washington (wins over Damm and Humbert) whereas Tabilo has been solid here but has a recent clay loss at Estoril. Fatigue is relevant: Shelton has logged 273 minutes in the event versus Tabilo’s 234 — a heavier workload but one that reflects deeper, often longer matches (including a 144‑minute win). Both players show similar serving profiles (mean serve index virtually identical), so there’s no clear serving advantage; return numbers are close as well. Over the last three matches, Tabilo is 2-1 with two Washington wins (including a 142‑minute battle with Griekspoor), while Shelton is also 2-1, with two tight Washington victories and a long five-set loss at Wimbledon earlier in the summer.