Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Rank: #301
38%
VS

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #73
62%
Expected Total Games: 24.2
Predicted Winner: Alejandro Tabilo

Ranking Trends

Facundo Diaz Acosta

  • Current Rank: #301 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #225 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #255 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #201 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #75 (2025-02-10)

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current Rank: #73 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #81 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #103 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #42 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #27 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Form Index: 0.0
ELO Rating: 260.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1568.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.0
Clay: 1.2
Grass: 1.4
Serve Rating: 49.2
Return Rating: 62.1

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 22.5
ELO Rating: 676.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1685.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.4
Clay: 6.9
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 98.8
Return Rating: 89.0

Recent Matches

Facundo Diaz Acosta
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Dusan Lajovic (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tristan Schoolkate (1-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Yannick Hanfmann (0-2) clay Santiago 92 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Thiago Monteiro (1-2) clay Rio 159 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Thiago Seyboth Wild (1-2) clay Buenos Aires 128 min

Alejandro Tabilo
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (1-2) hard Auckland 108 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) hard Auckland 62 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Michael Mmoh (0-2) hard Hong Kong 111 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Yi Zhou (2-1) hard Hong Kong 114 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Facundo Diaz Acosta
vs
0
Alejandro Tabilo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Buenos Aires, Argentina — Round of 32 on clay at the 250-level event. Alejandro Tabilo is favored to win this match (61.96% vs Facundo Diaz Acosta 38.04%), with a predicted total of about 24.16 games in the encounter.

Match Analysis

The contrast on paper is clear: Facundo Diaz Acosta sits at rank 301 with an Elo around 260.4 and a form index of 0.0, while Alejandro Tabilo is ranked 73 with a substantially higher Elo of 676.8 and a form index near 22.45. Both players enter fresh from the tournament (fatigue 0.0), but Tabilo also posts a noticeably stronger surface strength index (6.86 vs 1.16). The mean serve indices differ markedly (Tabilo 98.76 vs Diaz Acosta 49.22) — a gap well over 5 points — and there’s also a sizeable gap in mean return (Tabilo 89.03 vs Diaz Acosta 62.07), which will shape baseline exchanges and hold/break dynamics. Recent form trends lean toward inconsistency for both. Diaz Acosta has three straight losses across hard, grass and clay (including a straight-sets defeat in Santiago), suggesting limited momentum coming into Buenos Aires. Tabilo’s last three results include a win in Auckland and two subsequent defeats (including a straight-sets loss at the Australian Open), indicating flashes of strong play but some recent vulnerability. Taken together, the rating, serve/return indices and recent results favor Tabilo as the more complete option on paper.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.2 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The model’s aces prediction sits at 13.22 total predicted aces and an expected double faults figure of 4.4. On clay, aces tend to be suppressed and the expected double faults can tick up due to longer rallies and fatigue, so the predicted aces should be read in that surface context. Given Tabilo’s far superior serve index, he is likely to contribute the bulk of the predicted aces, while expected double faults remain moderate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tabilo’s clear edge in ranking, Elo and both serve and return indices underpins the prediction. The key factor to watch will be whether Tabilo can convert his serving power and return edge into early holds and breaks on clay, minimizing extended rallies where surface favors the returner.

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