Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Prediction

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Rank: #68
47%
VS

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #45
53%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Camilo Ugo Carabelli

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Ranking Trends

Aleksandar Kovacevic

  • Current #68 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #76 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #79 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #109 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #90 2024-10-14

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

  • Current #45 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #59 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #60 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #94 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #104 2024-10-14

Player Metrics

Aleksandar Kovacevic

Form Index: 10.5
ELO Rating: 601.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1537.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.9
Clay: 4.4
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 85.2

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 29.5
ELO Rating: 785.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1557.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.0
Clay: 6.9
Grass: 4.4
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 88.5

Recent Matches

Aleksandar Kovacevic
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Aleksandar Kovacevic
vs
0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 of the ATP 250 tournament in Stockholm, Aleksandar Kovacevic faces Camilo Ugo Carabelli on hard courts. With a prediction favoring Carabelli, he holds a slight edge with a 53.47% probability of winning compared to Kovacevic's 46.53%. The anticipated total number of games played is around 23.

Match Analysis

Aleksandar Kovacevic, currently ranked 68, has a form index of 10.49 and an Elo rating of 601.49. His surface strength index stands at 6.87, indicating a solid performance on hard courts. However, his mean serve index is notably higher at 97.79 compared to Carabelli's 95.02. This 2.77-point difference may provide him with an advantage in service games. On the other hand, Kovacevic's mean return index is 85.15, which is significantly lower than Carabelli's 88.54, creating a gap of over 3 points that could be critical in return games. Camilo Ugo Carabelli, ranked 45, boasts a stronger form index of 29.53 and a much higher Elo rating of 785.90, indicating he has been performing better overall. His recent matches include a win against Terence Atmane, but he has struggled against higher-ranked players like Alex de Minaur. In contrast, Kovacevic has faced a series of tough losses in his last three matches, indicating a challenging path leading into this contest.

Final Prediction

Camilo Ugo Carabelli's higher ranking and better recent form give him a crucial edge going into this match. The key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of Carabelli's return game, as his superior mean return index may capitalize on Kovacevic's struggles in recent performances.

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