Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Corentin Moutet: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Kovacevic arrives as world No. 75 with a form index of 40.05 and an Elo of 871.6; he carries 111 minutes of court time in this event and posts a surface strength index of 4.89. Moutet, ranked 35, has a lower form index (33.22) but a substantially higher Elo (1382.3) and no tournament fatigue yet; his surface strength index is 11.13. Serve and return metrics diverge markedly: Moutet’s mean serve index (96.81) exceeds Kovacevic’s (86.00) by more than 5 points, and his mean return index (90.37) dwarfs Kovacevic’s (27.83), indicating a clear edge both initiating and countering service games. Recent results reinforce the contrast. Kovacevic is 2-1 across his last three outings, with wins over Adam Walton and Hubert Hurkacz and a loss to Frances Tiafoe; those matches were all on hard courts and include a solid upset in the previous round. Moutet’s last three recorded matches are all losses—against Alexander Zverev, Tommy Paul and Carlos Alcaraz—though several were competitive in duration. The combination of Moutet’s superior Elo and return rating against Kovacevic’s recent match toughness shapes the matchup narrative.