Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
63%
VS

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #51
37%
Expected Total Games: 24.5
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

Why the Model Favors Alex de Minaur

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +9.7 Alex de Minaur
Surface fit +6.6 Alex de Minaur
Overall strength +5.0 Alex de Minaur
Serve & return game +4.4 Stefanos Tsitsipas
Recent form +2.0 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 63% for Alex de Minaur. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #6 2026-07-27
  • 3 mo ago #8 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #6 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #6 2025-10-27
  • 12 mo ago #8 2025-07-28

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #51 2026-07-27
  • 3 mo ago #80 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #35 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #26 2025-10-27
  • 12 mo ago #30 2025-07-28

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 39.6
ELO Rating: 1820.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1883.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 39.0
Clay: 31.2
Grass: 36.3
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 91.8

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 45.9
ELO Rating: 1744.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1738.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.8
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Stefanos Tsitsipas
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex de Minaur
vs
1
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Washington (DC), round of 32 on hard courts at an ATP 500 event, Alex de Minaur is favored to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas. The model projects de Minaur to win with a 62.96% probability versus 37.04% for Tsitsipas, and forecasts about 24.56 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Alex de Minaur comes mainly from his recent results at higher-level events (a +9.7 percentage-point influence) and a better surface fit for hard courts (+6.6). De Minaur arrives as world No. 6 with an Elo of 1820.6 and a form index of 39.55; he shows no fatigue in this event and posts a surface strength index of 39.0. Tsitsipas is ranked 51, Elo 1744.2, with a slightly higher form index (45.90) but a lower hard-court surface strength (24.75). Those gaps help explain the model’s lean to de Minaur. Tsitsipas does pick up ground in the model from serve & return game (+4.4 toward Tsitsipas) and recent form (+1.9), reflecting his strong serving metrics and three straight wins on clay in Gstaad. Compare profiles: de Minaur’s mean serve index (96.48) and Tsitsipas’s (96.10) are nearly identical, so no serve advantage is flagged; however de Minaur’s mean return index (91.84) is meaningfully higher than Tsitsipas’s (85.65), a difference over five points that favors de Minaur’s ability to break. Recent match patterns: de Minaur won two early Wimbledon matches before a third-round loss to Flavio Cobolli, while Tsitsipas has three straight wins on clay.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.5 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alex de Minaur - Stefanos Tsitsipas) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest is modest: the predicted aces total is 10.75 for the match, consistent with hard courts producing a medium ace count. The double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults figure of 5.12. With serve ratings nearly even, no single player should dominate the ace ledger, though de Minaur’s stronger return profile could suppress Tsitsipas’s predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.7 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.1 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alex de Minaur's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (37.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

De Minaur’s edge is driven primarily by recent results at higher-level events (the top model key factor) and a better hard-court fit. Watch the return-versus-serve battle early—de Minaur’s return quality is the decisive variable to monitor.

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