Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #9
87%
VS

Toby Samuel

Rank: #159
13%
Expected Total Games: 36.7
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

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Ranking Trends

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #9 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #6 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #7 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #8 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #9 2025-05-26

Toby Samuel

  • Current #159 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #246 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #329 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Player Metrics

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 36.4
ELO Rating: 1808.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1888.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 38.9
Clay: 33.0
Grass: 37.2
Serve Rating: 94.2
Return Rating: 89.8

Toby Samuel

Form Index: 44.8
ELO Rating: 1604.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1731.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.6
Clay: 16.8
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 90.5
Return Rating: 89.1

Recent Matches

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Toby Samuel
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Gonzalo Bueno (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs David Goffin (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alex de Minaur
vs
0
Toby Samuel
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, round of 128 on clay at the 2026 Grand Slam, Alex de Minaur is heavily favoured to dispatch Toby Samuel. The model projects de Minaur to win with an 87.30% probability versus 12.70% for Samuel, and it expects a relatively short encounter of about 36.74 total games.

Match Analysis

The matchup is lopsided on paper: de Minaur sits at world No. 9 with an Elo of 1808.49, while Samuel is No. 159 with an Elo of 1604.35. De Minaur’s form index (36.40) is lower than Samuel’s (44.78), but de Minaur’s ranking, superior Elo and a markedly stronger surface strength index (33.04 vs 16.77) point to better clay-court credentials. Fatigue is another clear divider — de Minaur arrives fresh with 0 minutes logged in this event, while Samuel carries 348 minutes of court time already, which can be decisive on grind-heavy clay. Serve and return profiles are comparable: de Minaur has a very high mean serve index (94.19) and an elite mean return index (89.81); Samuel’s serve (90.45) and return (89.08) are solid but not quite at de Minaur’s ceiling. Over the last three matches de Minaur has steamrolled through a clay swing in Hamburg with three wins, including extended battles, showing both endurance and form on this surface. Samuel has two hard-fought victories at Roland Garros—long 174-minute matches against Gonzalo Bueno and David Goffin—demonstrating resilience but also contributing to his tournament fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.7 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alex de Minaur - Toby Samuel) +4.8 Most likely spread: +4 (Alex de Minaur wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clash sits at a modest 10.82 total, and the predicted aces figure reflects clay’s dampening effect on outright serving power. The expected double faults tally is 6.13; the double faults prediction factors in clay’s longer rallies and Samuel’s accumulated minutes. While de Minaur’s serve index is higher, the surface should limit free points and keep the ace count moderate.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.8 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

28.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alex de Minaur's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (48.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

De Minaur’s higher rank, Elo and clear clay surface edge give him the upper hand, especially against a fatigued opponent. Watch how Samuel’s legs hold up and whether de Minaur can convert early breaks — that will be the decisive factor.

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