Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Alexander Blockx vs Coleman Wong: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Blockx

Rank: #36
63%
VS

Coleman Wong

Rank: #113
37%
Expected Total Games: 39.9
Predicted Winner: Alexander Blockx

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Player Metrics

Alexander Blockx

Form Index: 48.5
ELO Rating: 1827.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1835.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.7
Clay: 32.1
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 90.9

Coleman Wong

Form Index: 43.6
ELO Rating: 1576.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1638.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.4
Clay: 7.1
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 94.1
Return Rating: 84.0

Recent Matches

Alexander Blockx

Coleman Wong

  • Last Match: vs Juan Carlos Prado Angelo (1-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Zdenek Kolar (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Billy Harris (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (0-2) clay Houston 85 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Ignacio Buse (1-2) hard Miami 106 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Blockx
vs
0
Coleman Wong
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, the Round of 128 on clay pits 36th-ranked Alexander Blockx against 113th-ranked Coleman Wong in a Grand Slam main-draw encounter. The model favors Blockx (63.28% win probability) over Wong (36.72%), with an expected total of about 39.86 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Blockx arrives with the higher ranking (36), a stronger Elo (1827.01) and a slightly better form index (48.52 vs 43.60). His surface strength index (32.15) is substantially higher than Wong’s (7.13), and Blockx has no cumulative tournament fatigue (0 minutes), which contrasts sharply with Wong’s 522 minutes on court already. That freshness on clay should matter in lengthy rallies and in the physical grind of best-of-five at a major. The mean return index gap is notable: Blockx’s 90.86 versus Wong’s 83.98 (a difference greater than 5 points), suggesting Blockx is the superior returner on paper and could pressure Wong’s service games more often. Their mean serve indices are close (96.01 vs 94.12), so serve firepower alone is not a decisive edge. Recent form: Blockx came through two wins in Rome before a straight-sets loss to Alexander Zverev (matches of 119, 140 and 73 minutes), whereas Wong’s three Roland Garros matches have been marathon affairs — two wins followed by a loss — each logged at 174 minutes, which explains his heavy minutes total and potential fatigue concerns.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.9 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Alexander Blockx versus Coleman Wong. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Alexander Blockx versus Coleman Wong. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Blockx - Coleman Wong) +3.0 Most likely spread: +2 (Alexander Blockx wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Alexander Blockx versus Coleman Wong. Positive values indicate Alexander Blockx winning more games, negative values indicate Coleman Wong winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Alexander Blockx versus Coleman Wong. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at an expected 14.21 for the contest, with an expected double faults total of 6.61. On slow, high-bouncing clay, the predicted aces are muted compared with faster surfaces and the expected double faults may creep up as rallies and fatigue accumulate. Since neither player posts a markedly higher serve rating, the predicted aces are moderate rather than skewed heavily toward one server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.2 Most likely: 14 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Alexander Blockx versus Coleman Wong. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Alexander Blockx versus Coleman Wong. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Alexander Blockx versus Coleman Wong. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Alexander Blockx versus Coleman Wong. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

47.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexander Blockx's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (29.3%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Alexander Blockx's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Blockx’s combination of higher ranking, stronger Elo and clear return advantage — plus his freshness — give him the edge in this projected outcome. Watch how Blockx’s return pressure and Wong’s endurance late in long games shape the decisive breaks.

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