Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Alexander Bublik vs Adrian Mannarino: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #16
74%
VS

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #67
26%
Expected Total Games: 36.5
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Why the Model Favors Alexander Bublik

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +5.7 Alexander Bublik
Overall strength +5.2 Alexander Bublik
Age +5.1 Alexander Bublik
Surface fit +3.9 Alexander Bublik
Recent form +2.4 Alexander Bublik

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 74% for Alexander Bublik. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #16 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #10 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #11 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #24 2025-08-25

Adrian Mannarino

  • Current #67 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #45 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #48 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #69 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #77 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 51.8
ELO Rating: 1763.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1810.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 35.4
Clay: 29.3
Grass: 36.1
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 88.0

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 37.6
ELO Rating: 1568.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1579.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.1
Clay: 0.0
Grass: 22.1
Serve Rating: 95.3
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Adrian Mannarino
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
1
Adrian Mannarino
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the 2026 US Open in New York, Alexander Bublik meets Adrian Mannarino in the Round of 64 on hard courts. The model favors Bublik to win, with a 74.09% probability versus 25.91% for Mannarino, and it projects about 36.48 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Bublik comes mainly from serve and return metrics and overall strength, with age and surface fit also nudging the prediction his way. Bublik is the higher-ranked player at 16, with an Elo of 1763.62 and a form index of 51.81. His mean serve index is 97.25 and his mean return index is 87.96. Mannarino is ranked 67, Elo 1568.71, form index 37.60, with a mean serve index of 95.26 and mean return index of 87.59. Both players arrive with identical tournament fatigue, 174 minutes on court. Bublik’s surface strength index sits at 35.43, notably higher than Mannarino’s 22.07, which supports the model’s surface fit factor. Recent results underline the contrast in momentum. Bublik won his opening US Open match over J.J. Wolf in four sets, bookended by a win and a loss on clay in Kitzbuhel. Mannarino survived a five-set opener at the US Open against Thiago Tirante, but his prior two hard court outings were defeats to Lorenzo Sonego and Denis Shapovalov. Those recent form patterns feed into the 2.4 percentage points advantage noted by the model.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.5 Most likely outcome: 35 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Bublik - Adrian Mannarino) +2.5 Most likely spread: +2 (Alexander Bublik wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sees a high total on a medium-paced hard court, with 20.41 expected aces in the match. The predicted aces split is 13.80 for Bublik and 7.12 for Mannarino. The double faults prediction is 9.67 expected double faults overall, split as 5.41 for Bublik and 4.27 for Mannarino. Hard courts favor a steady number of aces compared with grass or clay, which aligns with the predicted totals.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 20.4 Most likely: 18 aces Per player: Alexander Bublik 13.8 + Adrian Mannarino 7.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 9.7 Most likely: 8 double faults Per player: Alexander Bublik 5.4 + Adrian Mannarino 4.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Alexander Bublik

Expected 13.8 aces

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 7.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Alexander Bublik

Expected 5.4 double faults

Adrian Mannarino

Expected 4.3 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

50.9% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexander Bublik's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (45.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s advantage is driven most by serve and return capability, backed by higher ranking and Elo. Watch his serve potency and return aggression early, as those factors are likely to decide how quickly the match falls in his favor.

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