Kitzbuhel Austria Clay Atp 250 Finals

Alexander Bublik vs Arthur Cazaux Prediction

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #30
54%
VS

Arthur Cazaux

Rank: #100
46%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current Rank: #30 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #75 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #37 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #32 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #25 (2024-07-22)

Arthur Cazaux

  • Current Rank: #100 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #116 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #78 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #80 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #92 (2024-07-22)

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 66.5
ELO Rating: 1727.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1726.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 230.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 13.2
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 86.4

Arthur Cazaux

Form Index: 65.6
ELO Rating: 883.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1583.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 438.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.7
Clay: 7.6
Grass: 6.5
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 86.3

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Botic Van De Zandschulp (2-0) clay Kitzbuhel 82 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Shevchenko (2-0) clay Kitzbuhel 75 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (2-0) clay Kitzbuhel 73 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (2-1) clay Gstaad 127 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Cazaux (2-0) clay Gstaad 73 min

Arthur Cazaux
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Rinderknech (2-0) clay Kitzbuhel 115 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (2-0) clay Kitzbuhel 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) clay Kitzbuhel 106 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Ignacio Buse (2-1) clay Kitzbuhel 135 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) clay Gstaad 73 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Arthur Cazaux
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
1 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the finals of the Kitzbühel tournament, held on clay in Austria, Alexander Bublik faces off against Arthur Cazaux. The match is crucial for both players, as they vie for the ATP 250 title. Bublik is predicted to win with a probability of 53.92%, while Cazaux trails slightly behind at 46.08%. The total number of games anticipated in this contest is 24.

Match Analysis

Currently ranked 30th, Alexander Bublik boasts a strong form index of 66.52 and an Elo rating of 1727.50. His cumulative fatigue stands at 230 minutes, suggesting he is relatively fresh compared to his opponent. Bublik's surface strength index of 14.29 indicates a moderate proficiency on clay, complemented by a mean serve index of 97.03, which is notably higher than Cazaux's 95.72. The gap in serve quality could give Bublik an advantage in critical moments. Conversely, Cazaux, ranked 100th with an Elo rating of 882.97, has a form index of 65.56 but carries a higher fatigue level of 438 minutes, which may impact his performance. In their recent matches, Bublik has demonstrated consistent form, winning all three of his last matches without dropping a set, showcasing effective play on clay. Cazaux, while also victorious in his last three encounters, has had longer match durations, indicating a potentially more taxing path to the finals. Both players display solid return indices, with Bublik at 86.43 and Cazaux at 86.31, which is a marginal difference that may not significantly influence their play.

Final Prediction

Bublik's edge in serve strength and lower fatigue levels position him favorably heading into this final match. A key factor to observe will be how effectively Bublik can leverage his serve against Cazaux's return game, as this may dictate the flow and outcome of the match.