Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 32

Alexander Bublik vs Henrique Rocha Prediction

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #76
62%
VS

Henrique Rocha

Rank: #195
38%
Predicted Games Played: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current Rank: #76 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #51 (2025-02-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #34 (2024-11-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #27 (2024-08-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #17 (2024-05-27)

Henrique Rocha

  • Current Rank: #195 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #159 (2025-02-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #173 (2024-11-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #164 (2024-08-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #203 (2024-05-27)

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 66.7
ELO Rating: 1410.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1642.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.6
Clay: 13.2
Grass: 11.0
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 86.6

Henrique Rocha

Form Index: 85.8
ELO Rating: 619.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1543.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.3
Clay: 5.0
Grass: 3.1
Serve Rating: 92.6
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alex de Minaur (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (0-2) clay Hamburg 84 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (1-2) clay Rome 116 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Roman Safiullin (2-0) clay Rome 97 min

Henrique Rocha
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jakub Mensik (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Van Assche (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert (1-2) clay Marrakech 157 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Henrique Rocha
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at Roland Garros, Alexander Bublik is set to face Henrique Rocha on the challenging clay surface in France. With a predicted win probability of 62.30% for Bublik compared to 37.70% for Rocha, the match is expected to be competitive, with a predicted total of 38 games played.

Match Analysis

Alexander Bublik, currently ranked 76, has a form index of 66.70 and an Elo rating of 1410.55. His cumulative fatigue stands at 348 minutes, indicating he has managed his energy well thus far in the tournament. Bublik's surface strength index is 13.16, which suggests he is still adapting to clay. Notably, his mean serve index is 97.18, significantly higher than Rocha's 92.63, giving him a considerable advantage in serving power. Additionally, Bublik's mean return index of 86.57 also surpasses Rocha's 85.56, underscoring his capability to respond effectively to Rocha's serve. Henrique Rocha, ranked 195, boasts a higher form index of 85.81, indicating a strong performance in his recent matches. His Elo rating is considerably lower at 619.40, and he has accumulated more fatigue at 696 minutes. Rocha's recent performances include three consecutive victories at Roland Garros, showcasing his resilience and ability to perform well under pressure. However, his lower surface strength index of 5.00 suggests he may struggle against Bublik's more effective game on clay.

Final Prediction

Bublik's superior serving and returning capabilities, combined with his recent match experience, provide him a notable edge over Rocha. A key factor to observe will be Bublik's ability to maintain his energy levels throughout the match, given the cumulative fatigue he carries into this encounter.