Kitzbuhel Austria Clay Atp 250 Semifinals

Alexander Bublik vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Bublik

Rank: #11
53%
VS

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #31
47%
Expected Total Games: 25.7
Predicted Winner: Alexander Bublik

Why the Model Favors Alexander Bublik

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +2.6 Alexander Bublik
Overall strength +2.3 Alexander Bublik
Recent record by level +2.0 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Recent form +1.4 Alexander Bublik
Head-to-head +1.3 Alexander Bublik

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 53% for Alexander Bublik. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alexander Bublik

  • Current #11 2026-07-20
  • 3 mo ago #11 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #10 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #16 2025-10-20
  • 12 mo ago #30 2025-07-21

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #31 2026-07-20
  • 3 mo ago #29 2026-04-20
  • 6 mo ago #62 2026-01-19
  • 9 mo ago #60 2025-10-20
  • 12 mo ago #58 2025-07-21

Player Metrics

Alexander Bublik

Form Index: 46.4
ELO Rating: 1759.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1812.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 149.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 34.2
Clay: 30.2
Grass: 36.1
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 88.0

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 24.0
ELO Rating: 1622.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1750.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 212.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.8
Clay: 25.6
Grass: 4.6
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Alexander Bublik
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Alexander Bublik
vs
0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Kitzbühel, Austria — semifinal on clay at a 250-level event. The projection gives Alexander Bublik a narrow edge: a 53.45% chance to win versus 46.55% for Tomas Martin Etcheverry, with a predicted total of about 25.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model's edge for Bublik comes mainly from surface fit and overall strength, with smaller advantages from recent form and head-to-head. Bublik’s higher Elo (1759.94 vs 1621.98) and his stronger form index (46.41 vs 23.99) underpin the overall-strength tilt toward him. Surface fit also favors Bublik (+2.6 percentage points) despite both players having modest clay surface strength indices (Bublik 30.22, Etcheverry 25.57), suggesting Bublik’s game adapts a touch better to these conditions. Recent-record-by-level nudges the prediction toward Etcheverry — he’s been grinding longer matches at this event — but Bublik’s recent arc at Kitzbühel is solid: two straight straight-set wins (Molcan 70 minutes, Diaz Acosta 79 minutes) after a three-set loss in Gstaad. Etcheverry likewise arrives with two wins at this tournament (Rodionov 109 minutes, Buse 103 minutes) and an earlier loss in Umag; his cumulative court time (212 minutes) is substantially higher than Bublik’s 149 minutes, which could matter physically as the week progresses. Mean serve and return indices are close (serve: Bublik 97.28 vs Etcheverry 96.21; return: 88.03 vs 86.74), so no single player dominates those metrics by a large margin.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.7 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexander Bublik - Tomas Martin Etcheverry) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction for the match is about 17.18 total and the predicted aces count is tempered by clay’s slower, higher bounce — clay typically reduces ace frequency. The double faults prediction sits at roughly 5.25 expected double faults; longer rallies and the accumulated minutes (notably Etcheverry’s) can push up the expected double faults. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating to dramatically skew the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.2 Most likely: 17 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

54.8% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexander Bublik's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (33.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bublik’s slight advantage is driven primarily by surface fit, backed by superior overall strength and recent form. The key factor to watch will be physical freshness — particularly Etcheverry’s heavier court time — which could influence late-match serving consistency.

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