Alexei Popyrin vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Tabilo comes mainly from his recent record at this level and his overall record and opposition quality. Those factors contribute roughly 5.2 and 4.7 percentage points respectively toward Tabilo. His higher Elo and ranking underline that advantage. Tabilo sits at world No. 28 with an Elo of 1705.9 and a surface strength index of 29.62. Popyrin is ranked 130 with an Elo of 1640.8 and a surface strength index of 19.76. Both players show identical tournament fatigue at 174 minutes on court. Recent form is also cited by the model, adding about 3.8 points toward Tabilo. Looking at the last three matches, Popyrin is 1-2 with a notable win over Grigor Dimitrov at the US Open followed by earlier losses in Toronto and Cincinnati. Tabilo is 2-1 over his last three, including the US Open victory over Yannick Hanfmann and a win over Jan-Lennard Struff in Cincinnati. The model gives a small counterweight toward Popyrin based on serve and return metrics, contributing 3.2 points in his favor. Mean serve indices are close: Popyrin 96.95, Tabilo 96.27. Mean return indices are also near each other, with Popyrin at 84.66 and Tabilo at 86.33.