Grigor Dimitrov vs Alexei Popyrin: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Dimitrov comes mainly from surface fit (+3.0 points) and recent form (+2.9 points), with serve and return contribution also nudging the forecast toward him. Dimitrov posts a higher Elo at 1676.8 versus Popyrin at 1590.9, and his form index is substantially stronger at 54.52 compared with Popyrin's 35.85. Dimitrov's surface strength index of 23.62 eclipses Popyrin's 15.64, reinforcing the model's surface fit advantage on hard courts. Age moves the needle 2.8 points toward Popyrin according to the model. Fatigue is also a factor. Dimitrov arrives with 348 minutes played so far in the tournament, while Popyrin shows zero minutes. That cumulative workload favors Popyrin by 0.8 points in the model. Both players bring big serves. Their mean serve indices are almost identical, 95.76 for Dimitrov and 96.27 for Popyrin, so there is no large serve gap. Dimitrov does have a stronger mean return index at 87.98 versus Popyrin at 82.72, a difference of about 5.3 points, which helps explain his slight edge. Recent form narratives track this. Dimitrov has won his two opening US Open matches, both long affairs, after a loss in Cincinnati. Popyrin has struggled recently with two straight losses in Cincinnati and Toronto after a prior win in Toronto.