Los Cabos Mexico Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Andrey Rublev vs Alex Hernandez Prediction

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #14
81%
VS

Alex Hernandez

Rank: #491
19%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Andrey Rublev

Player Metrics

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 76.2
ELO Rating: 2190.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1891.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.4
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 26.9
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 87.4

Alex Hernandez

Form Index: 38.8
ELO Rating: 70.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1688.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 147.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 0.8
Clay: 0.4
Grass: 0.6
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 91.1

Recent Matches

Andrey Rublev

  • Last Match: vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Adrian Mannarino (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Lloyd Harris (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Laslo Djere (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (1-2) grass Halle 181 min

Alex Hernandez

  • Last Match: vs Taro Daniel (2-1) hard Los Cabos 147 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Andrey Rublev
vs
0
Alex Hernandez
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the Los Cabos tournament in Mexico, Andrey Rublev is set to face Alex Hernandez on hard courts. The match is expected to favor Rublev, who has an 81.24% probability of winning, while Hernandez holds an 18.76% chance. The predicted total number of games played is 22.

Match Analysis

Andrey Rublev, currently ranked 14th, boasts a form index of 76.15 and an Elo rating of 2189.98, indicating strong recent performances. His surface strength index of 17.37 suggests he is well-suited to the hard courts of Los Cabos. Crucially, Rublev's mean serve index stands at 97.84, providing him with a significant advantage over Hernandez, whose mean serve index is 95.82—resulting in a difference of over 5 points. Additionally, Rublev's mean return index of 87.42 is markedly superior to Hernandez's 91.07, which indicates a potential struggle for Hernandez in handling Rublev's serve. In recent matches, Rublev has faced tough competition at Wimbledon, where he won against Adrian Mannarino but fell to Carlos Alcaraz. His performance indicates resilience despite the loss, showing he has the capability to compete at high levels. Conversely, Alex Hernandez, ranked 491, has a form index of 38.84 and an Elo rating of 70.41, reflecting a less consistent performance overall. Although Hernandez secured a win against Taro Daniel in his last match, his prior two matches resulted in no recorded victories, which raises concerns about his ability to maintain form.

Final Prediction

Rublev's superior ranking, better recent form, and strong serve provide him with a distinct edge over Hernandez heading into this match. A key factor to watch will be Rublev's ability to leverage his serve against Hernandez's return game, which could dictate the flow of the match.