Andrey Rublev vs Arthur Rinderknech: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rublev enters ranked 18 with a substantially higher Elo (2401.53) and a stronger form index (62.02) than Rinderknech, who is ranked 31 with an Elo of 1538.43 and form 43.08. Fatigue is a factor for both: Rublev has logged 232 minutes on court in this event, Rinderknech 259 minutes, so Rinderknech is slightly more taxed. Both players show modest surface strength indices (Rublev 12.43, Rinderknech 13.34), indicating neither has a pronounced surface advantage here. Serve and return profiles diverge markedly. Rinderknech’s mean serve index (98.78) is far higher than Rublev’s (75.94) — a difference of ~22.8 points — and his mean return index (88.41) also exceeds Rublev’s (54.58) by ~33.8 points; both gaps are material. Over the last three matches each has two wins and one loss: Rublev beat Valentin Royer and Ugo Humbert in Dubai before falling to Carlos Alcaraz in Doha, while Rinderknech defeated Fabian Marozsan and Jack Draper in Dubai after a Doha loss to Alcaraz. Match durations show both have played extended matches in this event, but Rublev’s higher Elo and current form underpin the projected edge.