Cincinnati OH, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Quarterfinals

Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Andrey Rublev

Rank: #11
31%
VS

Carlos Alcaraz

Rank: #2
69%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Carlos Alcaraz

Ranking Trends

Andrey Rublev

  • Current Rank: #11 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #17 (2025-05-05)
  • 6 Months Ago: #10 (2025-02-03)
  • 9 Months Ago: #9 (2024-11-04)
  • 12 Months Ago: #6 (2024-08-12)

Carlos Alcaraz

  • Current Rank: #2 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #3 (2025-05-05)
  • 6 Months Ago: #3 (2025-02-03)
  • 9 Months Ago: #3 (2024-11-04)
  • 12 Months Ago: #3 (2024-08-12)

Player Metrics

Andrey Rublev

Form Index: 58.9
ELO Rating: 1964.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1879.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 377.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.7
Clay: 22.0
Grass: 26.9
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 87.4

Carlos Alcaraz

Form Index: 73.8
ELO Rating: 6661.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2357.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 276.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.6
Clay: 60.8
Grass: 58.9
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Andrey Rublev
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Comesana (2-0) hard Cincinnati 64 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexei Popyrin (2-1) hard Cincinnati 209 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) hard Cincinnati 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-2) hard Toronto 81 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (2-1) hard Toronto 141 min

Carlos Alcaraz
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Nardi (2-0) hard Cincinnati 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-0) hard Cincinnati 95 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (2-1) hard Cincinnati 101 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jannik Sinner (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Andrey Rublev
vs
1
Carlos Alcaraz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the Cincinnati Masters 1000, Andrey Rublev faces off against Carlos Alcaraz on hard court. The predicted winner is Carlos Alcaraz, who has a 69.33% probability of winning, compared to Rublev's 30.67%. The match is expected to feature around 22 total games.

Match Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz, ranked 2nd in the world, boasts a strong form index of 73.79 and an impressive Elo rating of 6661.20, indicating his current high performance level. He also has a lower cumulative fatigue of 276 minutes from the tournament, suggesting he is in better physical condition than Rublev. In contrast, Rublev, ranked 11th, has a form index of 58.93 and an Elo rating of 1963.96. His cumulative fatigue stands at 377 minutes, which may impact his performance. The surface strength index further highlights the gap, with Alcaraz at 54.58 versus Rublev's 15.66. The difference in their mean serve index is marginal, with Rublev at 97.80 and Alcaraz at 94.46; however, their mean return indices are closely matched, with Rublev at 87.44 and Alcaraz at 87.39, indicating both players are effective in returning serves. In their last three matches, Alcaraz has been dominant, winning all three without dropping a set, including a recent victory against Luca Nardi. Rublev has also shown strong form, winning his last three matches, but he faced a more extended battle against Alexei Popyrin, which could leave him with residual fatigue entering this match.

Final Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz's higher ranking, better form, and lower fatigue levels provide him with a distinct advantage heading into this quarterfinal clash. A key factor to watch will be Alcaraz's ability to maintain his aggression and precision on serve, as even slight fluctuations could impact his performance against a resilient opponent like Rublev.