Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Rublev is driven first and foremost by his overall strength (+9.3 percentage points), supported by a higher ranking (No.13) and superior Elo (1797.6 vs 1693.1). That advantage is reinforced by recent-record-by-level (+5.6 pp) and surface-fit (+5.5 pp) contributions: Rublev’s results at higher-level events and a stronger grass surface profile helped tip the scale. Rublev’s surface strength index (27.97) is notably higher than Safiullin’s (13.57), and his mean return index (94.13) comfortably outpaces Safiullin’s (86.18) by nearly eight points, a gap likely to matter on quick grass. Rublev’s form index (43.66) is lower than Safiullin’s (79.27), so recent momentum slightly favors the underdog on paper; nevertheless Rublev’s Elo and rank underpin the model’s forecast. Fatigue and recent workload also factor (+1.6 pp toward Rublev): Safiullin arrives with 522 minutes logged at this tournament, while Rublev shows 0 minutes of cumulative fatigue here. Recent match patterns reflect that contrast — Rublev is 1–2 in his last three outings (including a straight-sets win over Nuno Borges and two longer losses at Roland Garros and Halle), while Safiullin is coming off three straight wins at Wimbledon, albeit with long match durations.